Trump Embraces Weaker Dollar & ASML’s Huge Beat As AI Spurs Demand | Daybreak Europe 01/28/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 28, 2026 at 08:19  |  47:02  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg
Mark Cranfield — Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg
Annabel Droulers — Anchor, Bloomberg TV
Roland Lescure — Minister of Economy, France
Lizzy Burden — Crypto Reporter, Bloomberg News
Martin Kuchař — co-founder, BTC Prague
Hetal Mehta — Chief Economist, St. James's Place

Summary

Bloomberg Daybreak Europe focused on ASML's huge Q4 bookings beat and €12B buyback, which reinforced the AI semiconductor demand narrative and lifted Nasdaq and European futures. President Trump's relaxed stance on dollar weakness pushed the greenback to a four-year low and fueled speculation of a longer downtrend, with gold hitting $5,200 and the euro at a 2021 high. Markets awaited the Fed decision, while LVMH's sluggish sales and Indonesia's MSCI investability warning highlighted diverging global equity stories. The French Finance Minister discussed budget progress, OAT spread tightening, and France's investment attractiveness.

  • ASML beat bookings estimates and announced a €12B buyback by 2028.
  • AI demand narrative supported semiconductors, with a memory-chip squeeze seen lasting into 2027.
  • Dollar hit a four-year low as Trump said he was unconcerned about the selloff.
  • Gold rose above $5,200 and the euro reached its highest since 2021.
  • Mark Cranfield expected further dollar weakness and possible long-end Treasury steepening.
  • LVMH reported sluggish Q4 sales, with China muted and wines/spirits down 9%.
  • Indonesia equities fell more than 7% on MSCI frontier-market downgrade risk.
  • French Finance Minister cited budget progress, tighter OAT-Bund spreads, and France's pro-business appeal.
Ideas
Tom Mackenzie Anchor, Bloomberg 2:42
ASML bookings beat supports AI demand
ASML reported a monster Q4 bookings beat of €13.16B versus a €6.5B estimate and announced a €12B buyback through 2028. Tom Mackenzie argues the bookings, driven by hyperscaler capex and a memory-chip squeeze, could lift ASML through 2026.
ASML HIGH
Tom Mackenzie Anchor, Bloomberg 3:03
AI demand lifts semiconductor supply chain
The ASML bookings beat and memory-chip squeeze show AI demand is still building: hyperscaler capex is driving increased orders for foundries like TSMC and Samsung, while memory supply from Hynix, Samsung and Micron is unlikely to catch up with AI-chip demand until 2027. This supports the broader AI semiconductor supply chain.
SMH MED
Kathleen 6:19
LVMH faces muted luxury demand
LVMH's Q4 organic sales fell 3%, with the key fashion and leather unit under pressure, China demand muted, and wines/spirits down 9% — worse than expected. Kathleen says the luxury slump may not be over and 2026 is unlikely to be a straightforward year.
LVMH MED
Mark Cranfield Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 9:14
Dollar downtrend has further to run
Mark Cranfield says the dollar downtrend is firmly intact and may have further to run. Trump's relaxed comments add fuel to an existing move, record currency-option activity shows large players repositioning, and central banks/reserve managers are shifting away from USD assets. He also sees the euro needing to strengthen further before European policymakers become concerned.
UUP HIGH
Mark Cranfield Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 9:14
Dollar downtrend has further to run
Mark Cranfield says the dollar downtrend is firmly intact and may have further to run. Trump's relaxed comments add fuel to an existing move, record currency-option activity shows large players repositioning, and central banks/reserve managers are shifting away from USD assets. He also sees the euro needing to strengthen further before European policymakers become concerned.
FXE HIGH
Mark Cranfield Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 10:18
Gold gains on dollar diversification
Gold at $5,200 reflects a broad shift away from the U.S. dollar into precious metals as a haven, driven by central banks and reserve managers diversifying away from dollar assets. The dollar downtrend supports continued demand.
GLD MED
Mark Cranfield Cross Asset Strategist, Bloomberg 11:59
Fed pushback may steepen long-end yields
Mark Cranfield expects the Fed to push back against market pricing of two more cuts this year, with cautious Fed speakers likely to steepen the long end of the Treasury curve. He sees long-end yields potentially moving back toward the 5% area, making long-end Treasuries vulnerable.
Long-end US Treasuries MED
Annabel Droulers Anchor, Bloomberg TV 13:23
Weak dollar supports China/Hong Kong flows
Weak dollar is supporting Asian currencies, and Annabel Droulers flags a diversification flow away from U.S. assets back into mainland China and Hong Kong equities. This is a developing positive flow setup for China and Hong Kong markets.
FXI Hong Kong equities MED
Annabel Droulers Anchor, Bloomberg TV 13:33
MSCI downgrade risk hits Indonesia equities
Indonesia's market fell more than 7% after MSCI said it was cautious on the market's investability and considering a downgrade to frontier-market status. That threatens outflows and makes Indonesian equities unattractive until the index-review risk clears.
Indonesia equities MED
Roland Lescure Minister of Economy, France 32:53
Budget progress tightens French OAT spreads
Roland Lescure says the French budget's adoption is lowering political risk premium, with the OAT-Bund spread now at its tightest since the June 2024 snap election. He credits improved credibility and a commitment to fiscal consolidation, supporting French government bonds.
French Government Bonds (OATs) MED
Roland Lescure Minister of Economy, France 35:14
France remains Europe's top investment destination
Roland Lescure argues France remains the most attractive investment destination in Europe, citing fiscal consolidation, political stability, a strong labor market, AI/data-center investment, and Barclays moving its headquarters to Paris from Dublin. He says France's fundamentals are improving.
EWQ MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 28, 2026, features Tom Mackenzie, Kathleen, Mark Cranfield, Annabel Droulers, Roland Lescure discussing ASML, SMH, LVMH, UUP, FXE, GLD, Long-end US Treasuries, FXI, Hong Kong equities, Indonesia equities, French Government Bonds (OATs), EWQ. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Tom Mackenzie, Kathleen, Mark Cranfield, Annabel Droulers, Roland Lescure  · Tickers: ASML, SMH, LVMH, UUP, FXE, GLD, Long-end US Treasuries, FXI, Hong Kong equities, Indonesia equities, French Government Bonds (OATs), EWQ