The Winners & Losers From the India-EU FTA | Insight with Haslinda Amin 01/28/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 28, 2026 at 07:50  |  1:33:11  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Lee Anthony — Asia Equities Managing Editor, Bloomberg
Yuting Shao — Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management
Sudhi Ranjan Sen — Bloomberg India Government Reporter
Alisha Sachdev — India Auto Reporter, Bloomberg
Swayam Saurabh — CFO, JSW Steel
Hardeep Singh Puri — India's Oil Minister
Sama Bilbao y León — Director General, World Nuclear Association
Steven Chu — FX Strategist
Yoshinori Kanehana — Chairman, Kawasaki Heavy Industries
Donald Trump — President of the United States
Paul Allen — Reporter, Bloomberg
Dan Wang — Writer, Marginal Revolution
Robert Kaplan — Vice Chair, Goldman Sachs; former President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Summary

The program covers the weak US dollar after President Trump's comments, MSCI's move to freeze Indonesian index changes, and the winners and losers from the EU-India free-trade agreement. It also features India Energy Week discussions on Canada energy ties and nuclear expansion, JSW Steel's outlook, Kawasaki Heavy's growth areas, and strategists' views on currencies, bonds, tech and the Fed.

  • Trump's relaxed stance on a weaker dollar deepens the dollar decline and supports gold, silver and Asian currencies.
  • MSCI freezes Indonesian index changes over transparency and ownership concerns, pressuring Indonesian equities and raising frontier-market downgrade risk.
  • The EU-India free-trade deal is seen as positive for Indian textiles, gems and jewellery, machine tools, steel demand, and Indian and European autos with guardrails.
  • India Energy Week highlights Canada as a potential top-five energy supplier and India's nuclear expansion ambitions, including SMRs.
  • JSW Steel expects strong Indian steel demand and capacity growth while keeping its focus on the domestic market.
  • Kawasaki Heavy Industries sees growth in physical AI/humanoid robotics, hydrogen and India high-speed rail.
  • Strategists favor more dollar weakness, yen strength, Asian local-currency bonds, KOSPI and Asian tech, but want more foreign inflows before turning bullish on Indian equities.
  • Fed commentary suggests a pause until inflation clearly eases, while Japan's 40-year bond auction soothed long-end market fears.
Ideas
Lee Anthony Asia Equities Managing Editor, Bloomberg 3:14
MSCI freeze pressures Indonesian equities.
MSCI paused index changes for Indonesian companies and warned of a possible downgrade to frontier-market status because of transparency, free-float, and tightly held ownership concerns. The market fell sharply and the May deadline keeps pressure on Indonesian equities.
Lee Anthony Asia Equities Managing Editor, Bloomberg 5:53
Weak dollar boosts gold and silver.
Weak dollar, central-bank diversification away from dollar assets into hard assets, retail demand, and limited supply of hard assets are strong tailwinds for precious metals. Tether's large gold reserves add to the bid, and momentum remains strong for gold and silver.
Yuting Shao Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management 7:48
Dollar downtrend has more room.
Trump's comfort with a weaker dollar aligns with US goals of supporting exports, narrowing the trade deficit, and rebalancing global manufacturing. The dollar downtrend may have more to run, benefiting Asian currencies including the yen and renminbi.
Yuting Shao Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management 7:48
Dollar downtrend has more room.
Trump's comfort with a weaker dollar aligns with US goals of supporting exports, narrowing the trade deficit, and rebalancing global manufacturing. The dollar downtrend may have more to run, benefiting Asian currencies including the yen and renminbi.
Yuting Shao Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management 9:16
Asian local-currency bonds attractive.
Asian local-currency bonds should benefit from loose global liquidity, good risk sentiment, and continued easing expectations across the region.
Yuting Shao Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management 10:07
KOSPI medium-term overweight remains.
KOSPI is a value-up corporate governance reform beneficiary with continued foreign inflows and resilient exports. The firm remains overweight medium term, though a near-term pause or adjustment is possible after the sharp rally.
Yuting Shao Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management 11:12
Tech liked, valuation needs proof.
The tech sector remains front and center and the firm continues to like related stocks, but upcoming earnings must show CapEx monetization and profitability to justify high valuations. Circular investment dealmaking raises concentration risk.
Yuting Shao Senior Global Macro Strategist, Manulife Investment Management 14:49
India attractive, but needs inflows.
India's macro and growth backdrop remains good and the EU-India trade deal should help sentiment, but weak foreign flows and trade uncertainty mean more inflows are needed before turning more bullish.
Sudhi Ranjan Sen Bloomberg India Government Reporter 19:45
EU-India FTA lifts Indian exporters.
The EU-India free-trade deal is a win for Indian export sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, and machine tools. It broadens India's export basket and geographies, offering respite from US tariffs.
Hardeep Singh Puri India's Oil Minister 36:03
Canada seen top India supplier.
Canada has potential to become one of India's top five energy suppliers. IOC is invested and six liquefaction plants are being built in British Columbia, and India hopes to import Canadian natural gas as ties expand into oil, gas, renewables and critical minerals.
Sama Bilbao y León Director General, World Nuclear Association 39:34
India nuclear open for business.
India's recent nuclear law is a clear signal that it is open for business, with global private players interested and NPCIL already planning. The 100 GW by 2047 ambition is difficult, but the government's long-term vision reduces financing risk and India has an experienced nuclear industry.
Sama Bilbao y León Director General, World Nuclear Association 42:05
SMRs viable for coal repowering.
SMRs are viable and will be a good match for repowering coal units and powering industrial clusters, though large reactors will still provide the bulk of nuclear power.
Sama Bilbao y León Director General, World Nuclear Association 43:40
Global nuclear capacity ramping up.
Nuclear is essential globally for energy security, decarbonization and economic growth. The world is targeting a tripling of capacity by 2050, finance and industrial companies are engaging, and the industry is ramping up, though the West must rebuild supply chains and workforce.
Alisha Sachdev India Auto Reporter, Bloomberg 50:25
India autos protected, exports improve.
Indian mass-market automakers are not badly hurt because 30-40% tariffs still make EU imports uncompetitive. EV imports are protected for five years, while a 625,000-unit export quota into the EU, 2.5x India's import quota, opens opportunities for small affordable cars and ICE manufacturers, making them more globally competitive.
Alisha Sachdev India Auto Reporter, Bloomberg 51:33
EU carmakers gain India access.
The EU-India deal is a shot in the arm for European carmakers that have long struggled in India, allowing them to import vehicles at lower duties and giving them access to a market where they had limited scale.
Swayam Saurabh CFO, JSW Steel 54:29
JSW Steel capacity, demand support.
JSW Steel is expanding capacity toward 51-55 Mt with the Odisha 5 Mt phase one and a low-emission facility. It expects domestic demand to absorb all new capacity, sees pricing opportunities after safeguard duties and cost inflation, and views the EU-India deal as positive for steel demand via engineered goods and quota exports.
Swayam Saurabh CFO, JSW Steel 59:38
Indian steel demand grows structurally.
Indian steel demand should grow 7-9% with per-capita consumption far below global averages. Infrastructure, housing, autos, private capex, rural recovery and renewable transition should support multi-year growth, and safeguard duties plus coking coal cost pressure create room for domestic price increases.
Steven Chu FX Strategist 71:37
Dollar has room to fall.
The dollar-debasement trade can continue because no one knows Trump's red line. In Trump's first term the dollar index fell below 90 near 88-89, and it is far from that level now, leaving room for more downside.
Steven Chu FX Strategist 72:21
Yen can strengthen sharply.
The yen is a key beneficiary of dollar weakness, with potential coordinated US-Japan intervention. The model's fair value for USD/JPY is around 129 and rate differentials point to 120-130, with 140-145 a sure possibility within the year from around 150.
Steven Chu FX Strategist 72:21
Yen can strengthen sharply.
The yen is a key beneficiary of dollar weakness, with potential coordinated US-Japan intervention. The model's fair value for USD/JPY is around 129 and rate differentials point to 120-130, with 140-145 a sure possibility within the year from around 150.
Yoshinori Kanehana Chairman, Kawasaki Heavy Industries 76:50
Kawasaki positioned across growth areas.
Kawasaki is positioned across several growth areas: Nvidia approached it for physical AI because Nvidia lacks manipulation hardware while Kawasaki has a decade of humanoid robot work; it is building larger liquefied hydrogen carriers and a receiving terminal; and it is in a consortium bidding for Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed rail, with potential Make in India manufacturing.
Yoshinori Kanehana Chairman, Kawasaki Heavy Industries 78:35
Green hydrogen implementation starting.
Green hydrogen is entering real implementation with cheap production potential in India and the Middle East. Kawasaki is developing liquefied hydrogen shipping, and government subsidies plus carbon penalties and CBAM should improve economics over 5-10 years.
Up Next

This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 28, 2026, features Lee Anthony, Yuting Shao, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Hardeep Singh Puri, Sama Bilbao y León, Alisha Sachdev, Swayam Saurabh, Steven Chu, Yoshinori Kanehana discussing Indonesian equities, GLD, SILVER, USD, FXY, Chinese renminbi, Asian local-currency bonds, EWY, Asian technology stocks, Indian equities, Indian gems and jewellery, Indian machine tools, Indian textiles, Canadian natural gas, Indian nuclear energy, Small modular reactors (SMRs), URA, Indian automakers, European automakers, JSWSTEEL.NS, Indian steel sector, USD/JPY, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, HYDR. 22 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Anthony, Yuting Shao, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Hardeep Singh Puri, Sama Bilbao y León, Alisha Sachdev, Swayam Saurabh, Steven Chu, Yoshinori Kanehana  · Tickers: Indonesian equities, GLD, SILVER, USD, FXY, Chinese renminbi, Asian local-currency bonds, EWY, Asian technology stocks, Indian equities, Indian gems and jewellery, Indian machine tools, Indian textiles, Canadian natural gas, Indian nuclear energy, Small modular reactors (SMRs), URA, Indian automakers, European automakers, JSWSTEEL.NS, Indian steel sector, USD/JPY, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, HYDR