Name: Finding The Next Perfect Trade | Alex Gurevich
Uploaded: 2026-01-28T08:00:00+00:00
Duration: 3182 s

Speakers

Alex Gurevich — CIO, Honte Investments

Summary

Alex Gurevich joins Forward Guidance to discuss his updated book The Next Perfect Trade and how his strategic principles have held up across regimes. The conversation covers trade construction, simplicity in options, carry, the necessity framework, liquidity regimes, and AI's impact on discretionary macro. His highest-conviction macro views include a new bull market in US Treasuries, long-dated JGBs, copper, and conditional trades in the dollar and precious metals.

Alex Gurevich explains his updated book and the importance of trade construction over market prediction.
He reviews the breakdown of the decades-long bond bull market and the limits of risk-parity thinking.
He favors simple expressions, avoiding complex options that can be right but still lose money.
Carry is one factor among many, as shown by oil backwardation and yen carry trades.
He sees a disinflationary spiral forming and expects a new bull market in US Treasuries.
He finds long-dated Japanese government bonds attractive at around 4% yield.
He likes copper as a trade that can work now or later on electrification demand.
He discusses AI's likely acceleration and the difficulty of finding direct tradable expressions.

Ideas

Alex Gurevich CIO, Honte Investments 13:30

Long dollar versus low-yield Asian currencies

In a low-liquidity regime where high real rates bite and global growth weakens, he wants to be long bonds and long the dollar against low-yield currencies such as China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. He wished he had been long USD/JPY but thought the yen was too cheap and missed that trade.

Alex Gurevich CIO, Honte Investments 13:51

Watch precious metals in high liquidity

In a high-liquidity regime, precious metals are likely to run. He suggests choosing among precious metals, crypto, and industrial metals the one that looks cheapest on historical ranges, while noting silver's story remains supportive but its current location is less attractive.

Alex Gurevich CIO, Honte Investments 14:44

Long copper on electrification and growth

Copper is a good long because if global growth is strong it works now, and if growth is weak it may work later as demand for electricity and electrification keeps copper in demand. He likes trades that work now or later, using other positions to offset interim weakness.

Alex Gurevich CIO, Honte Investments 43:49

Long Treasuries as disinflationary spiral builds

He sees the secular bond bear market as mature and expects a new bull market in US Treasuries. Positive real rates, a deteriorating job market, and a Fed reluctant to cut rapidly create a disinflationary spiral; the market is not pricing a return of front-end rates to zero, so Treasuries offer asymmetric upside.

Alex Gurevich CIO, Honte Investments 48:06

Long Japanese bonds as rates normalize

Long-dated Japanese government bonds look attractive at around 4% yield. Japan has low real rates, a weak yen, high inflation, and a very steep curve; default risk is low because debt is domestic. To lose money, the BOJ would have to raise short rates to 4%, but that scenario likely comes with a much stronger yen, which would stabilize the long end.

This Forward Guidance video, published January 28, 2026, features Alex Gurevich discussing US Dollar vs low-yield Asian currencies, GLTR, COPPER, TLT, Japanese government bonds. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Alex Gurevich · Tickers: US Dollar vs low-yield Asian currencies, GLTR, COPPER, TLT, Japanese government bonds

Finding The Next Perfect Trade | Alex Gurevich

Summary

Ideas

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