Your Macro Framework Is Missing the Strongest Signal in the Market w/ Caleb Franzen

Summary

Caleb Franzen joins Milk Road Macro to argue that the US economy and equity market remain resilient and in an uptrend even as sentiment and speculative risk appetite are weak. He sees broad earnings and revenue growth, retail/discretionary strength, and market breadth supporting stocks, while Bitcoin has broken a key long-term moving-average range and is in a bearish trend until it reclaims roughly $101,000. The discussion also covers global liquidity, precious-metals momentum, and his portfolio actions in semis, software, cybersecurity, Adobe, Intuit, and Coherent.

• Host John Gillan and guest Caleb Franzen discuss the divergence between all-time-high equities and depressed consumer and investor sentiment.
• Caleb argues the economy is resilient and dynamic, with GDP growth and industrial production not signaling an imminent recession.
• He says the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, supported by record forward earnings, broad revenue growth, and 67% of stocks above their 200-day moving averages.
• Retail and consumer discretionary stocks, including XLY, RSPD, and PSCD, are at all-time highs and signal solid risk-on consumer behavior.
• Caleb has turned bearish on Bitcoin after it lost its two-day 200 moving average cloud around $97,000; he would turn bullish again above $101,000 and plans to buy a dip near $75,000.
• He sees global liquidity as mixed: US liquidity is strong, but global M2 is sideways, and precious metals momentum may need to cool for risk appetite to return.
• He favors semiconductors, software, and cybersecurity in long-term accounts, while selling Adobe, Intuit, and trimming Coherent.