TEMPORADA DE BALANÇOS: AS MELHORES E PIORES AÇÕES DA BOLSA BRASILEIRA | Market Makers #359
Speakers
Francisco Utsch
— Gestor, Kiron Capital
Mauricio Rahmani
— Gestor, Reach Capital
Summary
The episode covers Brazilian Q1 2026 earnings season, with guests Mauricio Rahmani (Reach Capital) and Francisco Utsch (Kiron Capital). They analyze banks (Itaú, Nu, Inter, Mercantil), industrial cyclicals (Randon, Vamos), consumer (Smart Fit, Vulcabras, Panvel), and other names (Totvs, Mercado Livre, Cosan). The focus is on identifying value and growth opportunities amid high interest rates and a challenging credit cycle.
- Banks are under scrutiny due to rising delinquency fears; Itaú and Nu are favored for their defensive or growth profiles.
- Small-cap manager Mauricio Rahmani highlights Mercantil, Randon, Priner, Intelbras, Lavvi, and Technos as concentrated bets.
- Francisco Utsch emphasizes Totvs as a cheap quality software play, and Smart Fit as a secular growth story.
- The panel debates the impact of AI on software valuations, the GLP-1 phenomenon on pharmacy and fitness stocks, and the competitive dynamics between Mercado Livre and Shopee.
- Vamos is seen as avoidable due to operational issues and high leverage.
- Cosan is discussed as a sum-of-parts discount case with potential for value unlock.
- The broader market sentiment is cautious but selective, with many stocks trading at historically low multiples.
Trade Ideas
Inter oversold, bought after drop.
Banco Inter sold off 15% on earnings and another 7% on Investor Day due to credit quality concerns and a change in guidance (60/30 to rule-of-50). We saw that as overdone and bought shares this morning. The bank has strong growth potential, conservative provisioning on payroll loans, and a path to 18% ROE in the short term.
Itaú cheap, high ROE, defensive.
Itaú is trading below 8x 2027 earnings, 2x book, with 26.5% ROE and R$12bn quarterly profit. It is a defensive, liquid bank that foreign investors pile into when flows return. The current price below R$40 is attractive for long-term holders.
Nu growth cheap, multiple compressed.
Nubank trades at 11x 2027 earnings, a low multiple for a high-growth fintech with successful geographic expansion (Mexico profitable, US entry underway), founder-led management, and a strong credit model enhanced by AI. The risk-reward is attractive.
Mercantil cheap, elderly banking growth.
Banco Mercantil focuses on elderly clients (50+), won the latest INSS auction, and has a unique branch-based distribution. It trades at low multiples (4x earnings with 40% ROE), has strong growth from healthcare-assistance products (Meu Mais), and is undervalued due to low liquidity. Management is excellent.
Smart Fit cheap, growth accelerating.
Smart Fit delivered strong Q1 results (revenue +25%, EBIT +30%, recurring net profit +45%). Despite competition from new gym chains and aggregators like TotalPass, Smart Fit is the dominant player with a moat. International operations (Mexico bottoming, LatAm growing) add upside. Trading at 9.5x next year´s earnings, it is a bargain for a secular wellness growth story.
Vulcabras undervalued, high dividend potential.
Vulcabras has a strong brand in athletic footwear, growing double-digit volume and price thanks to performance shoes and e-commerce. Net profit fell due to higher financial expenses after paying dividends, but cash generation remains high. At current prices, the dividend yield could reach 12% next year. The stock is down 23% YTD, offering a good entry.
Randon sum-of-parts discount, cyclical recovery.
Randon is a conglomerate with heavy leverage and cyclical headwinds, but its sum-of-parts valuation is compelling: Frasle stake alone is worth more than market cap, and the consortium business alone has high value. Operating improvements are underway, and when the cycle turns, earnings can multiply. Patient holders should be rewarded.
Cosan sum-of-parts discount, value unlock.
Cosan is a holding company trading at a 20-30% discount to sum-of-parts, driven by the IPO of Compass, the potential exit from Raízen (valued at zero in our model), and other assets like Rumo and Radar. New management (BTG/Perfin influence) is focused on deleveraging and unlocking value. The stock at R$5.80 is a deep value play.
Priner growth, mining capex tailwind.
Priner is a services company focused on mining (yellow line equipment operation and assembly). Recent acquisitions (Real, CMEP) have transformed it. Revenue should reach R$2.2bn this year with strong EBITDA margin expansion thanks to operational leverage. The company generates enough cash to reinvest, and net profit could grow 70-80% YoY. It trades at an attractive multiple for a high-growth small cap.
Panvel defensive, GLP-1 tailwind.
Panvel is a pharmacy chain benefiting from the GLP-1 secular trend (weight-loss drugs), which is accelerating same-store sales by 3-4 points. The company has low leverage, trades at single-digit multiples, and has resilient demand even in a high-rate environment. It is a defensive small cap with a growth catalyst.
Vamos struggling, high leverage, avoid.
Vamos is a truck and equipment rental company that has struggled with contract defaults, high leverage, and disappointing results. The business model relies on long-term contracts with residual value risk, and recent failures have eroded trust. We prefer to stay away, given better alternatives like MILS.
MELI growth intact, margin pressure temporary.
Mercado Livre reported strong GMV growth (38% in Brazil) but fell 14% on the day due to margin pressure from free shipping and credit provision expansion. We view the drop as an opportunity: the company has a long track record of navigating credit cycles, and the freight investment is expanding the market. At 5% of portfolio, we remain positive and see an attractive risk/reward.
Totvs cheap, AI fears overblown.
Totvs has been hit by the AI sell-off in software stocks, but its mission-critical ERP systems (with high switching costs, inflation-linked contracts) are not easily disrupted. The acquisition of Links adds synergies, and the company is using AI to improve its own efficiency. At 16x earnings, it is historically cheap and a top pick.
Intelbras security growth, margin expansion.
Intelbras has recovered from past capital allocation mistakes in solar energy. Now focused on security (monitoring, cameras, locks) where it has a strong market position. Revenue is growing 11% annually with expanding margins. The stock has performed well YTD and remains a quality small cap with predictable cash flows.
Lavvi cheap, high-end builder.
Lavvi is a high-end homebuilder in São Paulo with excellent management and a strong land bank. After a 30-40% drop in share price, we initiated a position. The company has a large contracted backlog (R$2bn) and high REF margins, indicating significant future revenue and earnings growth. It fits our concentrated small-cap strategy.
Technos quality, operational leverage.
Technos is a watch retailer with 30% market share in Brazil. It has delivered strong revenue growth (volume and price), expanding gross margins, and operational leverage (SG&A/revenue declining). It is nearly net cash, pays dividends, and buys back shares. The weak dollar helps import costs. Q1 EBITDA grew 15% YoY. A high-quality small cap.
Up Next
This Market Makers video, published May 12, 2026, features Mauricio Rahmani, Francisco Utsch discussing BIDI4.SA, ITUB4.SA, NU, BMEB4.SA, SMFT3.SA, VULC3.SA, RAPT4.SA, CSAN3.SA, PRNR3.SA, PNVL3.SA, VAMO3.SA, MELI, TOTS3.SA, INTB3.SA, LAVV3.SA, TECN3.SA. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mauricio Rahmani, Francisco Utsch · Tickers: BIDI4.SA, ITUB4.SA, NU, BMEB4.SA, SMFT3.SA, VULC3.SA, RAPT4.SA, CSAN3.SA, PRNR3.SA, PNVL3.SA, VAMO3.SA, MELI, TOTS3.SA, INTB3.SA, LAVV3.SA, TECN3.SA