In A Game of Chicken: Daadler on US-Iran Talks

Summary

Ivo Daadler argues that US-Iran diplomatic progress is unlikely due to maximalist demands and miscalculation of leverage, and criticizes the choice of Witkoff and Kushner for nuclear negotiations. He also sees no near-term end to the Russia-Ukraine war, noting Ukraine's resilience and Russian casualties from drone warfare, but no breakthrough in sight.

• Daadler says both US and Iran believe they have more leverage than they actually do, leading to a stalemate.
• He warns the US is underestimating Iran's willingness to suffer economic and military damage.
• Daadler argues Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner lack the technical expertise needed for nuclear negotiations.
• He sees no sign of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks despite President Trump's optimistic claims.
• Daadler notes Ukraine survived a tough winter and is inflicting heavy casualties on Russia via drone warfare.
• He believes the war will continue until Russia accepts it cannot achieve its objectives.