US Inflation Accelerates | The Close 5/12/2026
Speakers
Jim Caron
— CIO, Portfolio Management, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Dan Chung
— CEO and CIO of Alger
Bob Sloan
— Founder and Managing Partner, S3 Partners
Dr. Lindsey Piegza
— Chief Economist, Stifel Financial
Michael Linenberg
— Managing Director and Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank Securities
Summary
Today's CPI report showed accelerating inflation, triggering an initial selloff in stocks led by semiconductor names, but markets recovered sharply. Guests discussed the Fed's likely inaction, the AI infrastructure buildout benefiting memory and semiconductor equipment, and the risk of a pullback in energy stocks. The bond market saw yields rise as inflation concerns persisted, while oil remained elevated.
- April CPI came in hot due to rising gasoline and grocery costs, raising concerns about inflation persistence.
- Stocks recovered from early losses; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index ended down 3% after being down nearly 7%.
- 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.46% as the market priced in a slower Fed.
- Jim Caron flagged 4.75% as a key yield threshold that could impair equity valuations.
- Dan Chung highlighted Western Digital and Microsoft as long-term AI beneficiaries.
- Bob Sloan warned that energy stocks look vulnerable due to a lack of short interest.
- Mandy Xu noted concentrated call buying in mega-cap tech and oil options signaling expectations of prolonged geopolitical risk.
- IPO activity remains strong with Cerebras and SpaceX set to go public.
Trade Ideas
4.75% yield key equity risk
The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.75% is a mathematical threshold where discounted cash flow analysis shows significant deterioration in equity present value, making it a critical level to watch for equity market risk.
Underweight duration for yield protection
They maintain underweight duration in their portfolios because they believe yields will stay elevated due to inflation and the Fed not cutting rates, and this positioning serves as a better hedge relative to equities.
WDC benefits from AI memory demand
Western Digital is uniquely positioned to benefit from AI-driven memory demand due to industry consolidation (only three major suppliers) and memory becoming a key bottleneck in AI computing, with insatiable demand ahead.
MSFT long-term AI winner
Microsoft will be a long-term winner in AI given its partnership with OpenAI, ability to reinvent itself, and strong fundamentals, despite near-term competitive struggles.
Energy stocks overhyped, risk of air pocket
Energy stocks have very low short interest despite elevated geopolitical risks and high oil prices, making them vulnerable to a sharp decline as the one-way bullish narrative looks overdone and 'has air pocket written all over it'.
