Calls
7
#948
Alpha Score 17.4
Francisco Utsch
Gestor, Kiron Capital
Win Rate
28.6%
return
-7.6%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
May 12
$39.87
-3.6%
Itaú is trading below 8x 2027 earnings, 2x book, with 26.5% ROE and R$12bn quarterly profit. It is a defensive, liquid bank that foreign investors pile into when flows return. The current price below R$40 is attractive for long-term holders.
Banks
Long
May 12
$13.37
+1.9%
Nubank trades at 11x 2027 earnings, a low multiple for a high-growth fintech with successful geographic expansion (Mexico profitable, US entry underway), founder-led management, and a strong credit model enhanced by AI. The risk-reward is attractive.
Payments & Fintech
Long
May 12
$4.81
-33.3%
Cosan is a holding company trading at a 20-30% discount to sum-of-parts, driven by the IPO of Compass, the potential exit from Raízen (valued at zero in our model), and other assets like Rumo and Radar. New management (BTG/Perfin influence) is focused on deleveraging and unlocking value. The stock at R$5.80 is a deep value play.
Oil & Gas
Long
May 12
$1577.00
+16.8%
Mercado Livre reported strong GMV growth (38% in Brazil) but fell 14% on the day due to margin pressure from free shipping and credit provision expansion. We view the drop as an opportunity: the company has a long track record of navigating credit cycles, and the freight investment is expanding the market. At 5% of portfolio, we remain positive and see an attractive risk/reward.
Retail & Mobility
Long
May 12
$12.90
-11.4%
Panvel is a pharmacy chain benefiting from the GLP-1 secular trend (weight-loss drugs), which is accelerating same-store sales by 3-4 points. The company has low leverage, trades at single-digit multiples, and has resilient demand even in a high-rate environment. It is a defensive small cap with a growth catalyst.
Construction & Infrastructure
Long
May 12
$19.74
-12.6%
Smart Fit delivered strong Q1 results (revenue +25%, EBIT +30%, recurring net profit +45%). Despite competition from new gym chains and aggregators like TotalPass, Smart Fit is the dominant player with a moat. International operations (Mexico bottoming, LatAm growing) add upside. Trading at 9.5x next year´s earnings, it is a bargain for a secular wellness growth story.
Retail & Mobility
Long
May 12
$33.04
-11.3%
Totvs has been hit by the AI sell-off in software stocks, but its mission-critical ERP systems (with high switching costs, inflation-linked contracts) are not easily disrupted. The acquisition of Links adds synergies, and the company is using AI to improve its own efficiency. At 16x earnings, it is historically cheap and a top pick.
AI Software
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Francisco Utsch has 7 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 7 tickers since May 2026. Ranked #948 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: ITUB4.SA, NU, TOTS3.SA.
