Bloomberg Surveillance 2/26/2026
Speakers
Ed Yardeni — President, Yardeni Research
— Yardeni Research president
Dan Ives — Managing Director, Wedbush Securities
— Wedbush analyst
Summary
- AI "Derangement Syndrome": Markets are oscillating between euphoria and skepticism regarding AI monetization. While Nvidia (NVDA) posted 72% revenue growth and 75% margins, the stock response was muted, suggesting the bar is incredibly high. Conversely, Salesforce (CRM) is in the "penalty box" due to fears that AI is deflationary for seat-based SaaS models.
- The "Catch-Up" Trade: With US tech valuations stretched and reaction functions muted, capital is rotating into laggards. South Korean equities (KOSPI) are up ~50% in two months, driven by memory chip demand. European equities are also seeing inflows as investors seek diversification away from US concentration.
- Macro & Labor: The labor market is described as "frozen" or "low hire, low fire." ADP data shows stability masking fragility, with turnover at 9-year lows. This supports a Fed "on hold" narrative rather than urgent cuts.
- Geopolitics: Tensions with Iran remain high, with potential risks to the Strait of Hormuz, though analysts believe President Trump prefers diplomacy/sanctions over immediate military strikes.
- Infrastructure Bottlenecks: The focus is shifting from chips to the broader infrastructure required to support them—fiber (Lumen), energy, and memory.
Trade Ideas
Salesforce stock is down significantly (-3% pre-market) following earnings; the market views their growth as decelerating and fears AI disruption. The company announced a $50B buyback, signaling intrinsic value. Moskowitz predicts revenue re-acceleration in the second half of the fiscal year (Q3/Q4) driven by "Agentforce" (AI agents). Ives calls the "software doomsday" narrative the most disconnected he has seen and views CRM as a "table pounder" at these levels. LONG. Contrarian value play on software rebound. If "Agentforce" fails to gain traction or if AI agents cannibalize seat-based pricing faster than expected.
Nvidia posted "Michael Jordan-like" numbers (75% margins, massive beat), yet the stock reaction was muted. Ives calls Palantir the "Dennis Rodman" and AMD the "Scottie Pippen" of this cycle. The market is currently obsessing over "AI risk" and monetization delays, ignoring the $1 trillion in capex spending that is confirmed by hyperscaler guidance. The derivative impact of this spending will flow to these key players. LONG. Ives views the muted reaction as a buying opportunity, raising his NVDA target to $300. Geopolitical restrictions (China) or a sudden pullback in hyperscaler capex.
The KOSPI (South Korea) is up nearly 50% in two months. Nvidia and AI applications have an insatiable demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory). As the AI trade broadens beyond the GPU (Nvidia), the bottleneck shifts to memory and optics. South Korea is the epicenter of memory production (Samsung/SK Hynix). This is also a valuation "catch-up" trade relative to the expensive US tech sector. LONG. Momentum and fundamental demand align for Korean memory exposure. Cyclical downturn in memory pricing or global recession.
The "Mag 7" stocks have de-rated and are trading at their lowest premium to the market in seven years. The market is pricing in uncertainty about future cash flows, but Ferragu argues the earnings power is sustainable and the AI investment cycle is still in the deployment phase. The valuation compression makes them "deep value" relative to their growth. LONG. Valuation support is now present for big tech. Regulatory crackdowns or a cessation of AI spending.
Lumen has restructured its balance sheet and is partnering with hyperscalers (Microsoft, Anthropic) to build a "private connectivity fabric." AI requires massive data transport. The "old telecom" pipes are being repurposed as essential AI infrastructure. Johnson argues they are "energy's best friend" by moving data to where power is cheap, solving the energy constraint latency issue. LONG. A turnaround play on AI infrastructure constraints (fiber/connectivity). Execution risk on the turnaround; high debt load despite restructuring.
The S&P 500 is concentrated and expensive. However, US earnings growth (15%) is far superior to Europe (3%). Investors want US exposure without the valuation risk of the "Mag 7." Mid-caps and Industrials offer "quality cyclical" exposure and benefit from the "roaring 2020s" productivity theme without the extreme multiples of big tech. LONG. Diversification within the US equity market. Economic slowdown hitting cyclicals harder than tech.
Tech companies like Alphabet are issuing 40-year bonds; there is massive demand for high-quality corporate paper. With yields elevated (approx 4% on the 10-year), investment-grade credit offers attractive returns. Brill warns against illiquid private credit, noting that if panic selling occurs, liquidity will be king. LONG. Lock in yields in liquid, high-grade issuers. Inflation re-accelerating, driving yields higher and prices lower.
Matt Brill
Head of US Investment Grade, Invesco
Pockets of stress are emerging in private markets; companies are facing redemption questions. In a stressed environment, investors sell what they *can* (liquid assets), but the real risk lies in the illiquid private debt that cannot be easily exited. Brill prefers liquidity in this environment. AVOID. Preference for liquid public credit over private structures. Private credit could remain resilient if the soft landing scenario plays out perfectly.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 26, 2026, features Greg Moskowitz, Dan Ives, Tony Wang, Pierre Ferragu, Kate Johnson, Emily Roland, Matt Brill discussing CRM, AMD, PLTR, NVDA, EWY, SOXX, FNGS, LUMN, XLI, IJH, LQD, BKLN. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Greg Moskowitz, Dan Ives, Tony Wang, Pierre Ferragu, Kate Johnson, Emily Roland, Matt Brill · Tickers: CRM, AMD, PLTR, NVDA, EWY, SOXX, FNGS, LUMN, XLI, IJH, LQD, BKLN