Matt Brill 1.6 4 ideas

Pockets of stress are emerging in private markets; companies are facing redemption questions. In a stressed environment, investors sell what they *can* (liquid assets), but the real risk lies in the illiquid private debt that cannot be easily exited. Brill prefers liquidity in this environment. AVOID. Preference for liquid public credit over private structures. Private credit could remain resilient if the soft landing scenario plays out perfectly.

Tech companies like Alphabet are issuing 40-year bonds; there is massive demand for high-quality corporate paper. With yields elevated (approx 4% on the 10-year), investment-grade credit offers attractive returns. Brill warns against illiquid private credit, noting that if panic selling occurs, liquidity will be king. LONG. Lock in yields in liquid, high-grade issuers. Inflation re-accelerating, driving yields higher and prices lower.

Google issued a 100-year bond in Sterling. Oracle issued equity to defend its balance sheet. Brill notes, "I love the hundred years... if you get paid." Big Tech firms are locking in capital. Oracle issuing equity to protect its credit rating is a bullish signal for bondholders (prioritizing balance sheet health). The demand for the front-end of tech curves (Google 3-year) is high. LONG Big Tech Investment Grade debt, specifically favoring the front end for safety or the very long end (100yr) only if the yield curve steepens significantly. Tech spreads widening due to massive supply (record issuance).