Traders Watch for US Tariff Supreme Court Ruling & Payrolls Report | The Opening Trade 1/9/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 09, 2026 at 11:47  |  1:11:35  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Steven Miran — Chair, Council of Economic Advisers
Skyler Montgomery Koning — Macro Strategist
Valerie Tytel — Reporter, Bloomberg
Max Kettner — Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC
Chloe Meley — Reporter, Bloomberg
Ilaria Di Gioia — Law Professor, Birmingham City University
Mark Burton — EMEA Mining and Metals Coverage Lead, Bloomberg
Will.i.am — Grammy-winning artist

Summary

Bloomberg's The Opening Trade previews a heavy Friday of U.S. risk events: December nonfarm payrolls and a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's IEEPA tariffs. Markets are range-bound ahead of the data, with the dollar and Treasury yields firm, while miners are in focus after Rio Tinto and Glencore confirmed merger talks. Guests debate the Fed path, tariff refunds, oil/energy positioning, and earnings/rates trade-offs.

  • Markets await December nonfarm payrolls and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs.
  • Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher; equity futures were range-bound before the data.
  • TSMC revenue beat estimates and reassured investors on AI spending, lifting semiconductor read-across sentiment.
  • Rio Tinto and Glencore are in talks for a $200B+ mining merger, with copper as a key strategic driver.
  • Guests debated whether strong labor data could price out Fed cuts or even put hikes on the table.
  • Max Kettner argued the U.S. front end is mispriced, favors selling 2s and 10s, and remains underweight energy.
  • Valerie Tytel expects the market rally to broaden but sees technology as the highest earnings-growth sector.
  • Oil executives are set to meet Trump at the White House to discuss Venezuela and energy policy.
Ideas
Steven Miran Chair, Council of Economic Advisers 13:17
Rates too restrictive; wants 150bp cuts
Rates are still materially above neutral, underlying inflation is running closer to target, and the labor market is at risk from overly restrictive policy; he wants 150 basis points of rate cuts this year.
TLT MED
Valerie Tytel Reporter, Bloomberg 14:05
Labor strength may put hikes on table
A drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3-4.4% could signal the labor market is healing or tightening rather than weakening, shifting the Fed narrative, pricing out cuts, and putting hikes on the table; this is a risk for front-end Treasuries.
US 2-Year Treasuries MED
Valerie Tytel Reporter, Bloomberg 21:21
Defense hurt by buyback restrictions
Government intervention can be positive for some industries, but for defense companies that are blocked from doing buybacks, it is a negative.
ITA LOW
Valerie Tytel Reporter, Bloomberg 22:18
Market rally can broaden beyond tech
The economy is surprisingly on the upside in Europe, the U.S., and China, with more fiscal spending and recovery support; the market rally has more room and should broaden beyond just tech.
SPY MED
Valerie Tytel Reporter, Bloomberg 22:21
Tech still leads earnings growth
Technology still has the highest earnings growth, even though the market rally has been narrow and she expects broader market improvement.
XLK MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 39:26
In-line payrolls could spark equity rally
If payrolls come in line with consensus and the unemployment rate falls, the labor market remains strong while the Fed still has an easing bias, which could give the equity market a go-ahead to rally.
SPY MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 39:50
Tariff ruling risks Treasury selloff
If the Supreme Court strikes down tariffs, repayments of collected revenue would worsen deficit concerns and raise Treasury risk premium; this is a short-term vulnerability, though other tariff authority could limit long-term impact.
TLT MED
Skyler Montgomery Koning Macro Strategist 41:09
Strong jobs lift front-end yields
If payrolls are strong or in line, it becomes harder for the Fed to cut soon, keeping policy on hold and giving front-end Treasury yields an upward bias; longer-end yields likely stay range-bound.
US 2-Year Treasuries MED
Chloe Meley Reporter, Bloomberg 43:09
TSMC read-across benefits ASML
TSMC's better-than-expected revenue reassured investors about sustained high AI spending into 2026 despite bubble fears, and that positive read-across should benefit ASML as a major TSMC supplier.
ASML MED
Max Kettner Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC 52:36
Higher rates may hurt US equities
Near-term U.S. earnings estimates are too low, but for 2026 the rates side matters more; one or two months of hawkish CPI or payrolls could price out cuts and introduce hike risk, which is negative for equities and valuations.
SPY MED
Max Kettner Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC 54:12
US bond market mispriced; sell 2s, 10s
The U.S. bond market is mispriced by up to 50 basis points; December 2026 rates are near 3%, and if the front end reprices, both 2-year and 10-year Treasuries should be sold.
US 2-Year Treasuries IEF HIGH
Max Kettner Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC 58:22
Oil surplus keeps energy underweight
The oil surplus story continues and is the main driver; he has been underweight energy and almost completely out of oil for at least 12 months, seeing tactical downside toward below $60 Brent before shale economics become a floor around $55.
BNO HIGH
Max Kettner Chief Multi-Asset Strategist, HSBC 58:22
Oil surplus keeps energy underweight
The oil surplus story continues and is the main driver; he has been underweight energy and almost completely out of oil for at least 12 months, seeing tactical downside toward below $60 Brent before shale economics become a floor around $55.
XLE HIGH
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 09, 2026, features Steven Miran, Valerie Tytel, Skyler Montgomery Koning, Chloe Meley, Max Kettner discussing TLT, US 2-Year Treasuries, ITA, SPY, XLK, ASML, IEF, BNO, XLE. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Steven Miran, Valerie Tytel, Skyler Montgomery Koning, Chloe Meley, Max Kettner  · Tickers: TLT, US 2-Year Treasuries, ITA, SPY, XLK, ASML, IEF, BNO, XLE