Ideas
Long supply-constrained metals and commodities.
Quinn is long metals and supply-constrained commodities because they should perform well in both rate cuts and an overheating economy, have AI and geopolitical resource-weaponization tailwinds, face long mine-supply constraints, and benefit as Main Street reaccelerates and tax refunds/capex expensing boost demand; he also notes institutional ownership remains low.
AI bottlenecks shift to critical metals.
Quinn argues AI capex bottlenecks are moving down the supply chain from chips to data centers to construction and raw materials, so critical metals and resources become the scarce assets; mines take many years to develop, and hyperscalers must keep buying these inputs to build out AI.
Short long-duration Treasuries on steepening.
Quinn expects massive Treasury curve steepening because the Fed is easing the front end while shortening duration on its balance sheet, foreign buyers like China and Japan are retreating, the trade deficit is narrowing, and deficits plus inflation make long-duration sovereign bonds unattractive.
Rotate into equal-weight cyclicals.
Felix sees a rotation out of Mag 7 into broader cyclicals: the RSP/SPY ratio is turning up, Dow transports and retail are breaking out, and tax changes for middle-income households plus Fed easing should support a more distributed market.
China attractive as dollar weakens.
If the Fed eases aggressively and weakens the dollar, commodities and the rest of the world should benefit more than US assets; Quinn calls China particularly attractive as a recipient of that dynamic.
Gold benefits from geopolitical conflict.
Quinn sees geopolitical conflict and resource weaponization as a bull case for gold, especially relative to US assets, as the world divides into a G2 order and countries protect strategic resources.
Long defense on government spending.
Tyler frames the regime as short globalism and long protectionism, arguing investors should put capital close to government spending; with $500 billion more defense spending and Trump pressuring defense companies to prioritize capacity, defense is a direct beneficiary.
Long corporate credit versus sovereigns.
Quinn argues corporate credit supply has been crowded out by heavy government issuance, so spreads are tight and the so-called risk-free sovereign rate is no longer risk-free; he expects IG corporate names to trade inside sovereign bonds.
Watch small-cap rotation versus QQQ.
Felix highlights the IWM/QQQ ratio gaining momentum as small caps rotate versus mega-cap tech, but he cautions this ratio has historically been inversely correlated with broad S&P beta, so it is more a rotation watch than a clean broad-market bullish signal.
Long XME, short QQQ pair.
Quinn highlights the XME-to-QQQ pair as a multi-year golden trade: metals and mining equities are only starting to outperform mega-cap tech, remain underowned by institutions, and the ratio is still near a 50-year bottom despite the recent rip.
Buy AI adopters, not Mag 7.
Felix argues the AI infrastructure trade is closer to the end than the beginning, and the better way to play AI adoption is to buy companies that can leverage the new infrastructure for margin gains rather than the Mag 7 infrastructure builders.
Avoid Bitcoin miners as overpriced tech.
Quinn is cautious on bitcoin miners/data-center converts because they are now in the prove-it stage, face construction delays and operational hiccups, and are priced like tech companies even though their economics may be closer to rail or utility infrastructure.
Uranium stocks breaking out; own them.
Felix is long uranium stocks, which he says are just starting to break out, and he notes the opportunity is especially interesting in Canadian small caps tied to the Canadian shield.
Short Mag 7, long cyclicals.
Quinn likes short Mag 7 because policy is shifting from capital to labor ahead of midterms, the K-shaped economy is being addressed, and indices may chop while cyclicals and government-spending beneficiaries rip; mega-cap tech also remains crowded long.
Gold miners can double again.
Quinn thinks gold miners could double again, drawing an analogy to the 1970s when broad indices chopped while cyclicals and hard-asset producers ripped; he also notes gold miners have delevered and are better run after a long bear market.
This Forward Guidance video, published January 09, 2026,
features Quinn Thompson, Felix Jauvin, tyler_neville_
discussing XME, DBC, Critical Metals, TLT, RSP, IYT, XRT, FXI, GLD, ITA, LQD, IWM, QQQ, AI-SECTOR, WGMI, Uranium Stocks, MAGS, GDX.
15 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Quinn Thompson,
Felix Jauvin,
tyler_neville_
· Tickers:
XME,
DBC,
Critical Metals,
TLT,
RSP,
IYT,
XRT,
FXI,
GLD,
ITA,
LQD,
IWM,
QQQ,
AI-SECTOR,
WGMI,
Uranium Stocks,
MAGS,
GDX
