US Supreme Court Ruling on Reciprocal Tariffs Imminent… Trump’s Plan B, Is Korea Okay? | Kim Kwang-suk, Research Director, Korea Economic and Industrial Research Institute

Summary

Kim Kwang-suk, Research Director at the Korea Economic and Industrial Research Institute, discusses the imminent US Supreme Court ruling on reciprocal tariffs, expecting an illegal ruling without refunds and a Trump Plan B using product-level tariffs. He then outlines his 2026 macro outlook: aggressive Fed rate cuts, new QE, stablecoin-driven demand for short-term Treasuries, a possible Bitcoin strategic reserve funded partly by gold sales, a weaker dollar, a stronger won, and risks for Korean exporters.

• The US Supreme Court may rule reciprocal tariffs illegal but avoid refunds; Trump is expected to use Section 232 product tariffs as a Plan B.
• Korean exporters face uncertainty and possible higher product tariffs, especially outside semiconductors and autos.
• Kim expects the next Fed chair to be dovish, reset the neutral rate and inflation target, cut rates, and launch new QE.
• He sees the Fed buying long-term Treasuries and stablecoin issuers buying short-term Treasuries, easing US fiscal funding.
• He expects Bitcoin to benefit from a strategic reserve push, midterm incentives, and liquidity, while gold may be sold to fund Bitcoin purchases.
• He forecasts a weaker US dollar and a stronger won, with USD/KRW stabilizing around 1,350–1,400 by end-2026.
• He views US equities as likely to surge when the next Fed chair is nominated and liquidity expectations build.
• He flags a possible new liquidity-driven debasement cycle, with volatile assets reacting first and the real economy later.