Arthur Hayes: "They're Going to Print the Money" — Hyperliquid, War, Hard Assets & the Macro Endgame
Speakers
Chris Perkins — Managing Partner at CoinFund
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- War is inherently inflationary; the longer conflicts in the Middle East or Europe persist, the more central banks (Fed/ECB) must print money to fund them, regardless of political leadership.
- A major rotation is occurring from "bits" (SaaS) to "atoms" (Hard Assets). The SaaS business model is facing an apocalypse due to AI replacing human seats, while commodities are structurally underinvested.
- 24/7 Crypto derivatives markets (specifically Hyperliquid) are structurally superior to traditional finance (TradFi) exchanges because they offer the leverage and availability retail demands, which legacy clearinghouses cannot match.
- Regulatory clarity (like the Clarity Act) is irrelevant to Bitcoin's price action; liquidity is the only driver that matters.
Trade Ideas
Hayes explains that traditional exchanges (like CME) cannot compete with 24/7 crypto perpetual markets because their clearing architecture is built for "9-to-5" banking hours and cannot offer the high leverage retail demands. Retail liquidity is sticky and demands 24/7 access and high leverage. Legacy exchanges are structurally incapable of offering this without risking insolvency due to their clearing models. This implies legacy exchanges will lose market share to offshore/DeFi derivatives platforms. Avoid legacy exchange operators as they face disruption from 24/7 decentralized competitors. Regulators could shut down offshore competitors, forcing volume back to regulated US exchanges.
Hayes states he prefers "rocks in the ground" (Gold, Silver, Uranium, Copper) because "the data centers need it, the gold industry needs it, all the merchants of death need it." War and AI are resource-intensive. War requires physical material, and AI data centers require massive power (Uranium) and conductivity (Copper). These sectors have suffered 20 years of underinvestment while capital chased software. Long hard assets as a secular inflation and industrial demand play. A sudden deflationary bust or austerity measures that crush global demand.
Hayes explicitly says, "Let's hammer Salesforce... they're no longer going to sell these very, very high subscriptions." The "SaaS Apocalypse." Venture capital spent 15 years funding software companies based on headcount growth. AI allows companies to do more with fewer people. Fewer employees means fewer SaaS "seats" (subscriptions), destroying the revenue model of legacy SaaS giants. Short/Avoid legacy SaaS companies dependent on per-seat pricing models. AI integration might allow SaaS companies to pivot pricing models successfully before revenue collapses.
Hayes argues, "If there's a war going on, is the Fed going to not print the money to fund the war? Of course not." Political theater (who is Fed Chair, who is President) is noise. The structural reality is that the US government must print money to fund debts and wars. Bitcoin is the direct hedge against this debasement. Regulatory acts (Clarity Act) do not drive price; liquidity injections do. Long Bitcoin (via spot ETFs) as a liquidity sponge. Global austerity measures (governments actually cutting spending), which Hayes views as unlikely but possible.
Hayes states, "I'm super bullish on Zcash... you can deanonymize Bitcoin transactions quite easily." As governments increase surveillance and financial repression (war economy), the premium for actual privacy increases. Bitcoin is a public ledger; Zcash offers true digital cash privacy. (Note: ZCSH is the Grayscale trust proxy for Zcash). Long privacy assets as a hedge against surveillance. Privacy coins face the highest risk of regulatory bans and delistings from exchanges.
