Name: Henrik Zeberg: The Final Gasp of This Bull Market—and the Fragile Economic Reality Beneath It
Uploaded: 2026-01-12T21:00:06+00:00
Duration: 3126 s

Speakers

Henrik Zeberg — Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock

Summary

Henrik Zeberg argues that markets are in the final blowoff/gasp of a major bull run, with near-term upside in equities, small caps, crypto, and a stronger dollar, but a fragile underlying economy. He expects the rally to give way to a deflationary crash, a Fed-driven bounce, and then stagflation, with gold and silver ultimately leading. He also warns of a potential 70%+ NASDAQ crash and Bitcoin destruction over the longer term, while viewing Singapore as a key top indicator.

Henrik sees a tale of two economies: a weak consumer and labor market versus rising financial markets.
Near term, he remains long the final blowoff, targeting S&P 8,200 and favoring small caps, NASDAQ catch-up, crypto, and a stronger dollar.
He expects gold and silver to pull back during the risk-on phase before a major stagflation-driven bull market.
Longer term, he warns of the worst recession and market crash since the 1930s, with NASDAQ down 70%+ and Bitcoin destroyed.
He monitors the Singapore index as a canary for a global top.
Fed independence threats and geopolitics are framed as systemic risks that could compound inflation and instability.
He discusses policy options including debt forgiveness (helpful) and credit-card rate caps (harmful).

Ideas

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 1:35

Small caps lead final risk-on rotation.

Small caps are leading the rally and making new all-time highs; late in a big top, investors rotate out the risk curve from safer large caps into small caps, so small caps should do extremely well during the final leg.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 1:39

NASDAQ lags, then catches up higher.

NASDAQ has lagged the S&P recently, which he views as a positive sign for the rally to continue; he expects NASDAQ to catch up and rise as part of the final blowoff top before the later long-term crash.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 3:17

S&P 500 blowoff top targets 8,200.

Near term, there is no indication of a top; this is the final blowoff/gasp of a major bull run, and he expects the S&P 500 to reach at least 8,200. He remains long/aggressive because liquidity, dovish Fed expectations, and still-easy financial conditions should propel the final leg higher before the later recession and crash.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 13:16

Dollar strengthens in deflationary liquidity phase.

The dollar remains strong and could be even stronger in 2026. While it may make a final cycle bottom around DXY 95-96, once it turns up it should benefit from a deflationary liquidity scramble because much global debt is USD-denominated. He favors dollar exposure before/into the deflationary phase.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 18:48

Crypto final melt-up; ETH beats BTC.

Crypto should follow the final risk-on blowoff. Bitcoin has gone sideways for over a year and should find its feet; Ethereum should outperform Bitcoin, and altcoins/speculative crypto should have an extreme rally as risk appetite moves to the outer end of the curve. He is positioned for this run.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 32:10

Singapore index: watch 15% top signal.

The Singapore index, as a small open trade-dependent economy, is a useful canary. He sees potential for another 15% upside before it tops, and once it tops, investors should watch for tops in other global markets.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 34:59

Gold and silver pull back pre-bull.

During the final risk-on blowoff and as the dollar rises, gold and silver are likely to have a pullback or bad decline; the recent run looks like the left side of an Eiffel Tower, and he expects the right side down before the longer-term bull resumes.

Henrik Zeberg Head Macroeconomist, SwissBlock 41:26

Commodities win in stagflation.

In the eventual stagflation phase, commodities are the best place to be; he specifically says commodities, including gold and silver precious metals, should lead as inflation stays uncomfortably high while the economy bottoms.

Henrik Zeberg: The Final Gasp of This Bull Market—and the Fragile Economic Reality Beneath It

Summary

Ideas

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