Typical warnings around market top are not present now, says Oppenheimer's Ari Wald
Speakers
Ari Wald
— Head of Technical Analysis, Oppenheimer
Summary
Ari Wald of Oppenheimer presents his 2026 outlook, with a top S&P 500 target of 7,700 and a view that the bull cycle remains intact. He sees market breadth broadening through small caps, industrials, financials, and global equities, while maintaining a long-term tech-led secular bull thesis. Wald also highlights the absence of typical market-top warnings and flags stable rates, credit spreads, and midterm volatility as key monitoring items.
- Ari Wald sets Oppenheimer's top 2026 S&P 500 target at 7,700.
- He says typical market-top warnings such as narrowing breadth, defensive leadership, and widening credit spreads are not present.
- Russell 2000 is breaking through five-year resistance, supporting a more inclusive advance.
- Industrials and financials are participating in a broadening trade, though he says it is not a sell-big-tech call.
- MSCI All Country World has broken 18-year resistance, signaling global equity strength.
- He still views the long-term market as a tech-led secular bull.
- Stable rates are supportive; a sharp drop in the 10-year yield with defensive leadership would be a warning.
- Midterm years are typically strong but can include roughly 10% drawdowns.
Ideas
S&P 500 can reach 7,700 in 2026.
Oppenheimer's top 2026 target for the S&P 500 is 7,700, as Ari Wald believes the market continues to push higher and the cycle remains intact. He argues typical market-top warnings are absent: internal breadth is healthy, high-beta cyclicals are outperforming defensives, and credit spreads are at new cycle highs. Stable rates, rather than high or low rates, support a healthy market and economy, and midterm-year volatility should be expected.
Small caps breaking five-year resistance.
The Russell 2000 is pushing through resistance that has capped gains for the last five years. Wald sees this as evidence of a healthier, more inclusive advance and part of the broadening trade.
Industrials and financials lead broadening trade.
The broadening trade is underway: industrial and financial stocks are starting to break out to the upside. Wald stresses this is not a sell-big-tech trade, and the rotation supports a healthier, more inclusive market advance.
World stocks break 18-year resistance.
The MSCI All Country World index has broken through 18-year resistance dating back to the great financial crisis. Wald calls it his biggest chart with global PMs last year and a sign of broadening global equity strength.
