Ideas
TSMC benefits from AI demand, capex.
TSMC is in a strong position going into 2026 because AI demand is driving revenue and margin expectations higher. Q4 revenue is expected to jump about 20%, gross margins could hit a three-year high of 59% to 61%, advanced-node ramp is a key focus, capex is expected to exceed 2025 levels, and potential Arizona expansion supports capacity growth.
AI cycle broadening beyond hyperscalers.
The AI investment wave is still in its early stages; TSMC capex should stay strong or accelerate, AI investments are diffusing into productivity, and the trade is broadening from hyperscalers into the wider AI ecosystem.
Favor US small caps on rotation.
He favors US small caps because they have outperformed the broader S&P for five to six months, investors have been overconcentrated in AI-related megacaps, and money is rotating into the broader market.
Emerging markets are underowned and cheap.
He has been bullish on emerging markets for 15 months and says EM is now the largest bet in global portfolios. Global investors remain underinvested in Asia and China-related names; EM trades at a roughly 25% discount and is moving into a phase of stronger earnings growth, with China an example of depressed valuation and potential catch-up.
AI data center suppliers benefit.
The AI capex boom is benefiting a broad set of smaller domestic US companies in the AI supply chain, especially electrification, data centers, and water and cooling for data centers.
Hot economy threatens Treasury yields.
A red-hot US economy with a Fed cutting only once would not be liked by the bond market; he warns of a shoot-up in bond yields and says the bond yield could become a pressure point for equities.
Prefer solid-balance-sheet corporate credit.
He prefers credit over government bonds, focusing on companies with solid balance sheets and lower yields.
EM local-currency debt offers currency upside.
He likes emerging-market local-currency government debt because it offers fixed income and benefits from local currency appreciation as he remains cautious on the US dollar.
US dollar faces hedging pressure.
He has been cautious on the US dollar since April and advises European and Swiss clients to hedge US asset currency exposure; global flows into US assets are increasingly hedged, reducing unhedged dollar demand.
US dollar faces hedging pressure.
He has been cautious on the US dollar since April and advises European and Swiss clients to hedge US asset currency exposure; global flows into US assets are increasingly hedged, reducing unhedged dollar demand.
Paul
Japan Economy and Government Editor, Bloomberg
52:23
Yen is undervalued versus rate differentials.
The yen is at very weak levels that look out of line with rate differentials; he thinks it should be stronger, though politics and fiscal uncertainty complicate the outlook.
Yen should appreciate on narrower differentials.
She sees the yen as supercheap and believes shrinking interest-rate differentials should lead it to appreciate toward 150-155 this year, though political uncertainty means it could also weaken further. Yen depreciation is her biggest concern because it fuels cost-push inflation and hurts consumers.
Weak economy caps JGB yields.
Rising JGB yields reflect fiscal risk premium from expansionary policy, but Japan's economy is weak and the neutral rate is low, so she does not see yields going much higher.
AI infrastructure capex remains strong.
He is positive on the AI infrastructure buildout: hyperscaler capex is projected near $500 billion in 2026 and remains a core driver of earnings growth and returns.
Broaden AI exposure beyond hyperscalers.
Hyperscalers are already priced for protection/perfection and face capex-ROI scrutiny, so he encourages clients to broaden AI exposure beyond hyperscalers into picks-and-shovels suppliers and the application side.
Chip shortage supports semiconductor winners.
A chip shortage is benefiting semiconductor companies: he cites Intel, Micron, SK Hynix and Samsung as chip names that have led with over 15% year-to-date returns as 2026 begins.
AI buildout drives power shortage.
Power is one of the biggest shortages in the AI buildout phase, making power and electricity infrastructure a beneficiary of data-center demand.
Asia AI supply chain favored.
He is very positive on Taiwan, South Korea and China for AI supply-chain exposure. China is also moving from leading the AI forefront locally to going more global, with almost 30% of AI usage now through Chinese open-source AI technology.
India offers long-term structural growth.
Despite tariff overhang, outflows and currency weakness, India's underlying growth is strong: GDP momentum is improving, it became the fourth-largest economy, reclaimed fastest-growing major economy status, and has policy stimulus including RBI cuts and GST reforms. Investors are underpositioned, making India a 3-5 year core driver of returns.
RBI to defend rupee near 90.
The Indian rupee has been weakened by tariff overhang and export balancing, but he expects the RBI to be more intentional in preventing USD/INR from moving too far beyond 90.
Emerging markets poised to outperform.
He sees emerging markets as a whole outperforming because a global rotation is underway, the US market was one of the weakest in 2025, EM earnings trajectory is improving, growth is accelerating, and leadership is coming from China, South Korea and Taiwan.
Gold is core portfolio diversifier.
Gold has become a core portfolio building block due to geopolitical uncertainty, a disinflationary regime, expected rate cuts later this year, US dollar depreciation, and central-bank buying. He targets a 5%-10% portfolio allocation as the risk-adjusted sweet spot.
Precious metals are core diversifiers.
He is positive on precious metals broadly because investors increasingly recognize their diversification and risk-management value, and US dollar depreciation supports them; gold is his preferred metal within the group.
US dollar continues depreciation trajectory.
He expects the US dollar to continue on a depreciation trajectory as disinflation and rate cuts later this year weaken dollar support, which also benefits precious metals.
Silver supply-demand drives prices higher.
Silver has strong supply-demand support: Chinese supply curbs, and potential new solid-state battery demand requiring more than one kilogram of silver per battery could propel prices higher, even after its sharp rally.
Commodities positive, oil range-bound.
He is positive on commodities in 2026, with the exception of oil, which he expects to remain range-bound.
Oil remains range-bound.
Oil is the exception to his positive commodities view; he expects it to remain more or less range-bound.
Brazil may rally on tariff relief.
A Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs could create short-term volatility in tariff-sensitive countries such as India and Brazil; if there is tariff relief, Brazil could see a rally.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 15, 2026,
features Annabel Droulers, Alexandre Drabowicz, Paul, Sayuri Shirai, Ritesh Ganeriwal
discussing TSM, AI ecosystem, US Small Caps, EEM, AAXJ, FXI, AI infrastructure supply chain, TLT, LQD, EMLC, USD, Currency-hedged US equity ETFs, FXY, Japanese government bonds, AIQ, AI picks and shovels, AI applications, INTC, MU, 000660.KS, 005930.KS, POWER, EWT, EWY, INDA, USD/INR, GLD, GLTR, SILVER, DBC, WTI, EWZ.
28 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Annabel Droulers,
Alexandre Drabowicz,
Paul,
Sayuri Shirai,
Ritesh Ganeriwal
· Tickers:
TSM,
AI ecosystem,
US Small Caps,
EEM,
AAXJ,
FXI,
AI infrastructure supply chain,
TLT,
LQD,
EMLC,
USD,
Currency-hedged US equity ETFs,
FXY,
Japanese government bonds,
AIQ,
AI picks and shovels,
AI applications,
INTC,
MU,
000660.KS,
005930.KS,
POWER,
EWT,
EWY,
INDA,
USD/INR,
GLD,
GLTR,
SILVER,
DBC,
WTI,
EWZ
