Calls
5
#1117
Alpha Score 13.6
Heather Conley
Senior Fellow, CSIS
Win Rate
20.0%
return
-14.1%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Jun 22
$112.56
-25.4%
The U.S. sanctions waiver and the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will allow increased Iranian oil exports, keeping energy prices low because the administration needs low oil prices for political purposes.
Commodities
Long
Jul 27
$125.39
+12.5%
Geopolitical tensions, particularly Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz and the opening of a new Red Sea chokepoint, combined with low European strategic petroleum reserves heading into winter, potential Chinese demand recovery, and US reserve draining, will keep upward pressure on energy prices, with a very challenging fall ahead.
Commodities
Long
Mar 02
$676.70
-21.0%
Trump: "We are destroying Iran's missile capabilities... campaign could last for four or five weeks." Conley: "This is going to be a test of wills... The entire region is swept in this." The administration is committing to a prolonged air campaign ("weeks") and potentially ground operations. This necessitates the massive expenditure and subsequent replenishment of precision munitions, missile defense interceptors (Patriots/THAAD), and air support logistics. Defense primes are the direct beneficiaries of this volume. LONG Defense Prime Contractors. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a sudden de-escalation by the Trump administration to avoid economic fallout before midterms.
Trump: "We are destroying Iran's missile capabilities... campaign could last for four or five weeks." Conley: "This is going to be a test of wills... The entire region is swept in this." The administration is committing to a prolonged air campaign ("weeks") and potentially ground operations. This necessitates the massive expenditure and subsequent replenishment of precision munitions, missile defense interceptors (Patriots/THAAD), and air support logistics. Defense primes are the direct beneficiaries of this volume. LONG Defense Prime Contractors. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a sudden de-escalation by the Trump administration to avoid economic fallout before midterms.
Defense
Long
Mar 02
$768.02
-31.6%
Trump: "We are destroying Iran's missile capabilities... campaign could last for four or five weeks." Conley: "This is going to be a test of wills... The entire region is swept in this." The administration is committing to a prolonged air campaign ("weeks") and potentially ground operations. This necessitates the massive expenditure and subsequent replenishment of precision munitions, missile defense interceptors (Patriots/THAAD), and air support logistics. Defense primes are the direct beneficiaries of this volume. LONG Defense Prime Contractors. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a sudden de-escalation by the Trump administration to avoid economic fallout before midterms.
Trump: "We are destroying Iran's missile capabilities... campaign could last for four or five weeks." Conley: "This is going to be a test of wills... The entire region is swept in this." The administration is committing to a prolonged air campaign ("weeks") and potentially ground operations. This necessitates the massive expenditure and subsequent replenishment of precision munitions, missile defense interceptors (Patriots/THAAD), and air support logistics. Defense primes are the direct beneficiaries of this volume. LONG Defense Prime Contractors. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a sudden de-escalation by the Trump administration to avoid economic fallout before midterms.
Defense
Long
Mar 02
$212.16
-5.2%
Trump: "We are destroying Iran's missile capabilities... campaign could last for four or five weeks." Conley: "This is going to be a test of wills... The entire region is swept in this." The administration is committing to a prolonged air campaign ("weeks") and potentially ground operations. This necessitates the massive expenditure and subsequent replenishment of precision munitions, missile defense interceptors (Patriots/THAAD), and air support logistics. Defense primes are the direct beneficiaries of this volume. LONG Defense Prime Contractors. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a sudden de-escalation by the Trump administration to avoid economic fallout before midterms.
Trump: "We are destroying Iran's missile capabilities... campaign could last for four or five weeks." Conley: "This is going to be a test of wills... The entire region is swept in this." The administration is committing to a prolonged air campaign ("weeks") and potentially ground operations. This necessitates the massive expenditure and subsequent replenishment of precision munitions, missile defense interceptors (Patriots/THAAD), and air support logistics. Defense primes are the direct beneficiaries of this volume. LONG Defense Prime Contractors. A rapid diplomatic resolution or a sudden de-escalation by the Trump administration to avoid economic fallout before midterms.
Defense
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Heather Conley has 5 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 4 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #1117 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: BNO, LMT, RTX.
