Name: Economist Warns Prices Soar, Jobs Disappear In 2026 | Steve Hanke
Uploaded: 2025-12-24T17:03:05+00:00
Duration: 2546 s

Speakers

Steve Hanke — Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University

Summary

Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins, discusses the 2026 outlook with David Lin. He warns inflation and unemployment will likely rise, pushing up the US misery index and worsening affordability. He expects Fed easing and money-supply acceleration to lift asset prices and is bullish on gold and silver, while he is bearish on China and Japan. The interview also covers Fed T-bill purchases, the dollar, and Venezuela/Cuba sanctions and oil.

Hanke expects inflation to slowly rise in 2026 and unemployment to increase, raising the US misery index.
He argues the Fed has shifted from QT to QE via $40 billion per month in T-bill purchases, rate cuts, and easier bank liquidity rules, accelerating money supply.
He says easy money is non-neutral and benefits asset holders, helping stocks, real estate, and commodities.
Hanke is bullish on gold, targeting a peak near $6,000/oz, and on silver, where he bought around $38 and cites China hoarding and a currency premium.
He is bearish on Japan as a basket case and expects China to miss its nominal GDP target and enter a de facto recession.
On Venezuela, he criticizes sanctions as ineffective, says PDVSA's oil reserves are essentially worthless due slow depletion, and notes hyperinflation makes bolivars worthless.
The interview also touches on Cuba's inflation, Germany/UK economic weakness, and the dollar/dedollarization backdrop.

Ideas

Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University 20:05

Inflation benefits owners of real assets.

Hanke argues Fed monetary policy is non-neutral and benefits asset holders. After COVID, money supply surged and stocks, real estate, and commodities rallied, increasing billionaire wealth as a share of GDP. In a high-misery, easy-money environment, owners of assets such as land, real estate, and stocks come out ahead.

Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University 22:51

Silver rises on China hoarding, currency demand.

Hanke personally bought silver at just over $38 and remains positive. He thinks silver will rise along with gold, driven by China restricting exports and hoarding the white metal, plus a new currency or moneyness premium being priced into silver beyond its traditional industrial use.

Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University 23:20

Gold to peak near $6,000.

Hanke expects inflation to reaccelerate in 2026 as the Fed ends QT, begins QE-style T-bill purchases, cuts rates, and eases bank liquidity rules, accelerating money supply growth. Against this monetary backdrop, gold, already near $4,500/oz, should continue higher and peak around $6,000/oz.

Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University 26:24

Japan is a basket case.

Hanke calls Japan a basket case: money supply growth has been below the golden growth rate for 30 years, monetary policy has been ultra-tight, productivity growth has been essentially zero for a decade and the worst in the G7, and the new Prime Minister's spending plans create a bad policy mix. This supports elevated recession risk for Japan.

Steve Hanke Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University 29:01

China faces de facto recession.

China is unlikely to hit its GDP targets. Its 5% real growth and 2% inflation targets imply 7% nominal GDP growth, but money supply growth is below Hanke's golden growth rate and CPI is only 0.7%, less than half the inflation target. He expects China will not reach either target and will enter a de facto recession.

Economist Warns Prices Soar, Jobs Disappear In 2026 | Steve Hanke

Summary

Ideas

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