Trading Desk - September 17th 2026
Speakers
Patrick Ceresna
— Derivatives Specialist, MacroVoices
Summary
Patrick Ceresna presents a TLT long-volatility trade and then reviews the post-Fed macro landscape. The discussion focuses on oil's role in driving inflation and rates, an unconfirmed dollar breakout, and key technical levels in gold and copper. It also highlights extreme natural-gas short positioning and CTA sell triggers in equities.
- Patrick Ceresna recommends a January 2027 TLT long strangle to own bond-market volatility.
- The Fed's hawkish hike was largely priced in, leaving oil as the key macro variable.
- Oil remains trend-supported by tight physical fundamentals and unresolved Middle East disruption.
- The dollar broke out after the Fed, but follow-through is still needed to confirm a bull trend.
- Gold and copper are at important technical decision points with crowded or uncertain positioning.
- Natural gas positioning is at a five-year net-short extreme, creating short-squeeze risk.
- Equities face CTA sell triggers below the S&P 500 but may stay rangebound near expiration.
Ideas
Own TLT volatility via long strangle.
Coming out of Harley Bassman's interview, Patrick wants to own bond-market uncertainty rather than pick the direction of yields. Harley's concerns about fiscal credibility, less Fed guidance, and mortgage convexity point to more volatile bond markets. January TLT implied volatility has rebounded from about 10% to roughly 12% but remains at the low end of its one-year range, so Patrick thinks the uncertainty could justify further repricing. He buys a January 15, 2027 TLT $85 call and $77 put long strangle at about $1.79 total premium, roughly 2% of underlying notional. This sacrifices some near-spot gamma versus an ATM straddle but retains positive vega and two-sided convexity; a roughly 7% move either way is needed to break even by expiration, and rangebound TLT risks full premium loss.
S&P at rangebound CTA trigger watch.
Patrick sees the equity market at a two-sided juncture: fundamentals remain strong with resilient earnings and solid economic growth, but high yields are compressing multiples and acting as a drag. The S&P 500 is battling its 50-day moving average, with CTA sell triggers sitting below the market; the Russell small-cap index has already seen a CTA flip. He says bulls must hold the line now, with many sell triggers under 7500, but his base case is that the market may be far more rangebound into September monthly expiration and the start of next week rather than breaking down immediately.
Respect oil uptrend; no deep reversion.
Patrick is focused on oil as the key macro driver. The physical disruption is real: war continues, Strait of Hormuz traffic is constrained, and fundamentals remain tight even with Saudi Arabia finding extra capacity through Oman. Crude and refined products are overbought and consolidating, but he wants to respect the prevailing trend because the geopolitical drivers are unresolved and a deep reversion is not supported. Higher crude and diesel are also driving inflation expectations, which feeds back into credit-market stress and the risk of CTA triggers in equities.
DXY breakout needs follow-through confirmation.
The Fed was the catalyst for a sharp dollar reversal, with DXY breaking above 100 as the euro broke down. Patrick notes the dollar had not made a lower low at any point, but one day does not make a new bull trend and there is not yet enough follow-through to confirm a resumption of the dollar bull market. He calls this the single most interesting post-FOMC development to watch because a renewed dollar advance would have major implications for assets that had been anticipating a weak dollar.
Gold 4,400 is key bull/bear line.
Gold's six-month correction was driven by rising real rates and a strong dollar. When the dollar weakened and real rates stabilized, it looked like the macro backdrop for a gold and Bitcoin breakout, but those perceived tailwinds have not held and may now be headwinds. Patrick says gold is at a line in the sand around 4,400: he wants to see it reclaim the 50-day moving average and break out of a declining wedge to resume the bull trend. A legitimate breakdown to 4,200 or 4,000 would mean the breakout was a false start and the gold bull market would likely be delayed into the fourth quarter, not that gold has turned bearish long term.
Copper crowded; 675 is make-or-break.
Copper has a strong structural bull case from mine supply constraints, electrification, AI demand, and tariffs, but those themes are now consensus and large-spec long positioning is at five-year extremes, making the trade dangerously crowded. A tariff-related scare caused an 8% correction, and the market is now at a make-or-break point after stalling at the 50% retracement of the summer rally. If bulls can reclaim 675, the strong trend can continue, but if rallies are distributed and the recent lows fail, the crowded positioning leaves copper vulnerable to a shakeout. Patrick gives the bulls the benefit of the doubt for now but flags high volatility and crowding.
Natural gas short crowd needs squeeze hedge.
Natural gas large-spec positioning is at an extreme: about 220,000 contracts net short and 0th percentile across one-, three-, and five-year lookbacks, the lowest net positioning in five years. The short side is fundamentally justified by strong production, inventory builds, and weather-driven power demand reduction, so no squeeze trigger has yet emerged. However, Patrick warns that the fuel for a serious short squeeze is in place. He says anyone who wants to stay short natural gas should use convexity or an options hedge because past positioning extremes have produced violent volatility when squeezes occur.
Up Next
This Macro Voices video, published September 17, 2026, features Patrick Ceresna discussing TLT January 15, 2027 $85 call / $77 put long strangle, SPY, WTI, BNO, DXY, GLD, COPPER, UNG. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Patrick Ceresna · Tickers: TLT January 15, 2027 $85 call / $77 put long strangle, SPY, WTI, BNO, DXY, GLD, COPPER, UNG