Yardeni on Cutting His S&P Outlook, Fed, Oil Prices

Summary

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, explains why he cut his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,900 from 8,400 while still expecting 8,400 by mid-next year. He cites Middle East escalation and higher-for-longer oil, potential additional Fed hikes, and global bond-market stress from the yen carry-trade unwind. He sees a more hawkish BOJ as a risk to global bonds and a support for the yen, and would avoid buying long-term bonds before the BOJ decision but finds a 5% 10-year Treasury yield attractive later. He also flags the delayed AI story and high AI-stock valuations as a drag on market multiples.

• Yardeni cuts S&P 500 year-end target to 7,900 from 8,400, but remains bullish.
• He expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,400 by mid-next year.
• Middle East escalation and Iran are seen keeping oil prices higher for longer.
• He expects the Fed may raise rates one or two more times this year.
• BOJ tightening could deepen the yen carry-trade unwind and global bond rout.
• He would not buy long-term bonds before the BOJ, but sees a 5% 10-year yield as attractive later.
• AI narrative delays and high AI valuations may pressure valuation multiples.