Ideas
Fed credibility loss raises bond volatility.
The Fed's shift away from forward guidance and its damaged credibility mean markets must reassess risk themselves, which is already making bond markets more volatile. He favored a 50bp one-and-done hike because the slow 25bp path prolongs uncertainty; investors should expect higher bond volatility.
Hyperscaler bonds remain money good.
Hyperscaler debt is not a bond-market crisis because Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Oracle have core cash-generating businesses that can service debt even if rates rise another 50-200bp. AI competition may hurt equity holders, but he views the bonds as money good.
Fiscal recklessness raises long-duration Treasury yields.
The rise in long-term Treasury yields is not being driven by inflation—10-year TIPS breakevens near 234 show inflation is not the market's main worry. Instead, a 6% fiscal deficit with no war or recession is eroding trust in US fiscal credibility, raising the term premium and the rate investors demand to hold dollars and long-duration Treasuries.
Negative convexity makes agency MBS risky.
The mortgage market's convexity is becoming more negatively convex as the yield curve flattens/inverts and low-coupon mortgages are recouponed into higher-coupon, near-strike bonds. That widens MBS spreads over Treasuries, and if you are involved in MBS you should be careful because upside is capped while downside remains exposed.
Avoid daily-reset leveraged ETFs.
Daily percentage-change leveraged ETFs suffer volatility drag: a 20% up move followed by a 20% down move leaves the ETF at 96, and repeated volatility can eventually burn the ETF to zero. They may be usable for a day or week but are problematic for longer holding periods.
Avoid overdistributing high-yield ETFs.
Many high-yield ETFs paying 10% or more are likely overdistributing and returning capital rather than earning it, especially when junk bonds yield only 6-8%. Investors should check whether the underlying assets generate enough income to cover the distribution; overdistribution makes the ETF self-liquidating.
Avoid ETFs with illiquid derivatives.
ETFs holding derivatives, total-return swaps, or illiquid assets are hybrid structures where market makers can transact at closing NAV. If the ETF manager must liquidate underlying assets below NAV but redeems at NAV, the fund is harmed; in a volatile market, liquidity mismatches could become a real problem.
Bitcoin ultimately goes to zero.
Bitcoin will eventually go to zero because it is an act of war against sovereign states and worthless as a transaction tool; it handles roughly 750,000 trades a day while Visa processes that volume every minute. He is not worried about Bitcoin as a monetary competitor.
US remains cleanest dirty shirt.
Despite US fiscal and institutional problems, the US remains the best place to invest compared with the rest of the world—Bill Gross's 'cleanest dirty shirt'—so he is not giving up on US assets.
Own TLT strangle for bond volatility.
Rather than betting on whether yields go higher or lower, he wants to own bond-market uncertainty via a TLT January 15, 2027 long strangle. Harley's concerns about fiscal credibility, less Fed guidance, and mortgage convexity point to more volatile bond markets; January implied vol has rebounded to roughly 12% but remains near the low end of its one-year range. The $85 call and $77 put cost about $1.79 and offer positive vega and two-sided convexity, though time decay requires roughly a 7% move to break even.
S&P faces CTA sell-trigger risk.
The S&P 500 is battling its 50-day moving average with CTA sell triggers sitting just below the market. Fundamentals and earnings remain supportive, but high yields are compressing multiples; the bulls need to hold the line to avoid a systematic breakdown, and his base case is a more rangebound market into expiration.
Oil trend remains biased higher.
Crude oil's physical supply situation remains fragile with Strait of Hormuz traffic constrained and fundamentals tight. Although oil is overbought and consolidating, he wants to respect the prevailing uptrend and does not expect a deep reversion without a surprise Middle East resolution; another leg higher is possible.
Watch DXY for dollar bull confirmation.
The US dollar index broke out above 100 on the hawkish Fed and a euro breakdown, and the dollar did not make a lower low. One day does not confirm a new bull trend, but this is the most important post-FOMC setup to watch because a resumed dollar bull advance would pressure assets that had been anticipating a weak dollar.
Gold bull needs 4,400 reclaim.
Gold is testing a key line near 4,400. He wants to see it reclaim the 50-day moving average and break out of a declining wedge to confirm the bull trend; a breakdown to 4,200 or 4,000 would mean the breakout was a false start and the gold bull market would likely begin later in Q4 after the hiking cycle.
Copper crowded; watch 6.75 reclaim.
Copper's long-term supply constraints, electrification, and AI demand make the structural story bullish, but large-spec positioning is at five-year extremes and the trade is very crowded. After an 8% tariff-related correction, copper is at a make-or-break level; bulls need to reclaim 6.75 to sustain the trend, while failure risks a washout of weak longs.
Natural gas short squeeze risk elevated.
Natural gas fundamentals justify bearish positioning—strong production, inventory builds, and weather-driven power demand weakness—but speculators are at a zero percentile and net short about 220,000 contracts, the lowest in five years. The short is very crowded and squeeze fuel is present, so any short natural gas position should be paired with convexity or an options hedge.
This Macro Voices video, published September 17, 2026,
features Harley Bassman, Patrick Ceresna
discussing MOVE, Google bonds, Amazon bonds, MSFT, Oracle bonds, Meta bonds, TLT, MBS, Daily-reset leveraged ETFs, Overdistributing high-yield ETFs, ETFs with derivatives/illiquid assets, BTC, United States assets, TLT Jan 15 2027 $85 call / $77 put long strangle, SPY, WTI, US Dollar Index (DXY), GLD, COPPER, UNG.
16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Harley Bassman,
Patrick Ceresna
· Tickers:
MOVE,
Google bonds,
Amazon bonds,
MSFT,
Oracle bonds,
Meta bonds,
TLT,
MBS,
Daily-reset leveraged ETFs,
Overdistributing high-yield ETFs,
ETFs with derivatives/illiquid assets,
BTC,
United States assets,
TLT Jan 15 2027 $85 call / $77 put long strangle,
SPY,
WTI,
US Dollar Index (DXY),
GLD,
COPPER,
UNG
