Global bonds Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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05:23
Sep 18
Sep 18
Avoid long-term bonds before BOJ
Global bond yields have risen almost everywhere except China as hedge funds unwind yen carry trades. A more hawkish BOJ would strengthen the yen and accelerate the unwind, making global bonds and especially long-term bonds vulnerable; he would not buy long-term bonds right ahead of the BOJ decision.
HIGH
18:58
Sep 17
Sep 17
Carry unwind threatens global bonds
The global bond rout is partly explained by hedge funds unwinding yen-funded carry trades. That unwind may not be over, and a more hawkish BOJ, especially a surprise 50bp hike, would make global bonds more vulnerable and push yields higher.
HIGH
08:14
Sep 15
Sep 15
Discusses Tuttle's tail-risk allocation, not a personal TLT entry.
Park summarizes Matthew Tuttle's proposed tail-risk allocation to short-term US Treasuries and managed futures, then explains how bonds may respond to a crisis. He does not recommend a personal long position in TLT.
MED
11:01
Sep 09
Sep 09
Real yields now attractive versus equities
Real yields around the world are at a much more attractive space relative to equity risk, and he is acting by adding duration because investors are getting paid more for duration risk than in the 2010s.
MED
08:11
Sep 09
Sep 09
Avoid bonds; bond prices likely fall.
Global rates and equities are rising together because this is an investment-cycle upswing. Bonds cannot perform well in this environment; bond prices are more likely to fall long term even if they bounce temporarily, so investors should avoid bond-heavy products.
MED
08:03
Sep 03
Sep 03
Yields rise further; bond prices fall
Global bond yields are likely to rise further because we are in a higher interest-rate environment, more developed-market central banks are likely to keep raising rates, and bond prices are grinding lower even though coupon income cushions holders. The move is gradual but points to continued downside for bond prices.
HIGH
05:02
Sep 01
Sep 01
Avoid fixed income amid Japanese auction risks.
It is a tough time for fixed income traders due to upcoming Japanese 10-year and 30-year auctions, which will have repercussions across G10 Treasuries, combined with pressure on the BOJ to hike rates and raised stakes on the inflation front.
MED
06:06
Aug 17
Aug 17
Global tightening is causing severe bond losses.
Major bond markets like South Korea, Japan, the UK, and Canada are tightening rapidly, leading to significant capital losses for bondholders and making bonds no longer the reliable portfolio ballast they once were.
HIGH
19:19
Aug 13
Aug 13
Higher JGB yields push global yields up.
The U.S. is worried about Treasury yields and intervened partly to prevent Japan, the biggest Treasury holder, from selling more U.S. Treasuries; if Japan sold, it would push U.S. yields higher, and verbal intervention or intervention only helps for some time, leaving Treasury yields vulnerable.
MED
06:54
Aug 05
Aug 05
Higher-for-longer yields; no explicit TLT short.
Avoid TLT: the Bloomberg segment says global long-end yields are likely to remain elevated, which is bearish for long-duration Treasury exposure, but it does not state an explicit short or puts trade.
MED
04:55
Apr 13
Apr 13
Conflict raises recession risk, inflation, and market volatility.
Real money managers are not complacent and are looking through the conflict's scenarios. Price volatility will continue with pockets of unwind. The energy shock (price and volume) will impact broader economies, with a higher probability of recession, particularly hurting emerging economies and Europe. Inflation will have a higher footprint, leading to a higher discount rate. Underlying earnings will come through, but there will not be a quick recovery post-conflict.
HIGH
About Global bonds Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks Global bonds across 3 sources: 1 bullish vs 2 bearish calls from 10 authors. Historical directional balance: -9% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 11 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 3 other directions. Latest voices: Ed Yardeni, Park Se-ik, Will Hobbs.