Bloomberg Surveillance 5/18/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 18, 2026 at 15:49  |  2:24:16  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Rob Rowe — Head of Research for the Americas, Citi Research
Dan Greenhaus — Chief Strategist, ICAP
Sucharita Kodali — Retail Analyst, Forrester
Liz Young Thomas — Head of Investment Strategy, SoFi
Sarah Kunst — Cleo Capital Founder
Francisco Blanch — Head of Global Commodities and Derivatives Research, Bank of America

Summary

The episode discusses the global bond selloff pushing yields to multi-decade highs, driven by elevated oil prices from the prolonged US-Iran conflict and shifting Fed expectations. Guests debate the outlook for oil, the impact on inflation and growth, and preview key earnings from Nvidia, Walmart, Target, and Home Depot. Several strategists share bullish calls on oil and cautious views on consumer discretionary stocks.

  • Global bond yields hit multi-decade highs, with the US 30-year above 5%.
  • Oil remains elevated as the Strait of Hormuz blockade enters its 11th week.
  • Citi's Rob Rowe is bullish on oil to $120 and longs 5-year duration.
  • Dan Greenhaus sees oil prices rising mathematically to $120.
  • Sucharita Kodali favors Walmart over Target and warns on Home Depot.
  • Liz Thomas recommends trimming tech and buying healthcare.
  • The Fed's easing bias is under pressure as inflation stays high.
  • Upcoming Nvidia and retail earnings are key for market direction.
Trade Ideas
Rob Rowe Head of Research for the Americas, Citi Research 5:44
Bullish on oil to $120.
Citi has a bullish call on oil, expecting Brent crude to reach around $120 a barrel due to supply deficits from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and declining inventories.
BNO HIGH
Rob Rowe Head of Research for the Americas, Citi Research 8:43
Long 5-year Treasury duration.
Citi is going long duration in the five-year Treasury note, expecting yields to come down as inflation narrative persists, though they are not bold enough to go longer.
5-Year Treasury Note MED
Dan Greenhaus Chief Strategist, ICAP 71:03
Oil prices will hit $120.
Oil prices have a structural upward bias and will reach $120 a barrel with mathematical certainty due to rapidly depleting global oil inventories, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
WTI HIGH
Sucharita Kodali Retail Analyst, Forrester 78:03
Buy Walmart, avoid Target.
Walmart continues to gain market share due to strong execution, store renovations, and employee retention, while Target remains in a turnaround mode and is likely to struggle further.
TGT MED
Sucharita Kodali Retail Analyst, Forrester 78:03
Buy Walmart, avoid Target.
Walmart continues to gain market share due to strong execution, store renovations, and employee retention, while Target remains in a turnaround mode and is likely to struggle further.
WMT MED
Sucharita Kodali Retail Analyst, Forrester 82:25
Home Depot faces headwinds.
Home Depot will face softness due to high interest rates weighing on housing and consumer spending on big-ticket home improvement projects.
HD MED
Liz Young Thomas Head of Investment Strategy, SoFi 106:00
Long healthcare, trim tech.
Investors should trim positions in high-flying tech/AI names and redeploy capital into the healthcare sector, which is poised to benefit from AI adoption but has not yet run up as much.
XLV MED
Up Next
0:57
LIRR Strike Jams Roads, Prompts Long Commutes as Talks Continue
Bloomberg Markets · May 18
1:07:03
Crisis Alpha Is Not What Most Investors Think | Systematic Investor | Ep.400
Top Traders Unplugged · May 18
2:14
Nvidia Q1 Revenue Expected to Reach Record $79 Billion
Bloomberg Markets · May 18
5:36
AI rally rolls on as Nvidia hype outweighs inflation and rate fears
CNBC · May 18
41:02
Ants Rushed to Debt-Financed Investment… The Real Risk Hidden Behind the Bull Market | Myeong Min-jun, Kang A-rang, Cha Young-ju [Stock Beginner Rescue Team]
3PRO TV (삼프로TV) · May 18

This Bloomberg Markets video, published May 18, 2026, features Rob Rowe, Dan Greenhaus, Sucharita Kodali, Liz Young Thomas discussing BNO, 5-Year Treasury Note, WTI, TGT, WMT, HD, XLV. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Rob Rowe, Dan Greenhaus, Sucharita Kodali, Liz Young Thomas  · Tickers: BNO, 5-Year Treasury Note, WTI, TGT, WMT, HD, XLV