Speaker assigns a 50% probability to a Middle East solution in 2-4 weeks. The alternative is "really bad," with oil potentially reaching $200/barrel, losing 7-10% of global production, and shaving ~2% from global GDP. The market faces a binary, high-consequence outcome. Sustained prices above $120 into H2 2026 would create a stagflationary environment, impacting corporate earnings and potentially causing a recession. WATCH the geopolitical developments closely, as the direction of oil prices is the critical variable for global growth and equity market performance in the coming months. A swift and durable peace agreement is reached, allowing oil to stabilize near current levels.