Iran War: Trump Tries to Stop Israel’s Lebanon Push | The Opening Trade 6/2/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 02, 2026 at 09:45  |  1:35:32  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Flavio Carpenzano — Investment Director, Capital Group
Shanti Kelemen — Portfolio Manager, 7IM
Angelina Valavina — Head of Natural Resources & Commodities, Fitch Ratings
Elliot Hentov — Head of Macro Policy Research, State Street Global Advisors
Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist
Tom Mackenzie — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

The episode covers the AI funding race (Alphabet's $80B equity raise, Anthropic IPO filing) and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Iran suspends talks, Israel-Lebanon conflict). Markets show a split: European tech rises on AI optimism while oil wavers on Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. Bond market guests see stagflation risks and favor long duration or TIPS for growth protection. Oil analyst expects a sharp price drop if the Strait reopens in July.

  • Alphabet announces $80B equity raise, mostly for AI infrastructure, with retail and Berkshire participation.
  • Anthropic privately files for IPO, signaling a race for AI capital.
  • Iran suspends talks with US over Israel's attacks in Lebanon; Strait of Hormuz reopening remains uncertain.
  • Brent crude hovers around $94, with analysts forecasting a drop to $70 if the Strait reopens in July.
  • European tech stocks rally on AI optimism, led by STMicroelectronics and Prosus.
  • Capital Group's Flavio Carpenzano recommends adding duration and TIPS for stagflation protection.
  • 7IM's Shanti Kelemen stays overweight technology, communication services, and energy.
  • ECB is expected to hike despite growth concerns, while BOJ is seen as behind the curve.
Trade Ideas
Flavio Carpenzano Investment Director, Capital Group 31:50
Long duration US Treasuries for growth protection.
We see more erosion in the low to middle part of the U.S. consumer, which will affect growth. The bond market is attractive for risk-reward because inflation risk is not well priced but downside risk is. We have increased duration in the long end to protect from growth downside.
US Treasuries (long duration) HIGH
Flavio Carpenzano Investment Director, Capital Group 32:02
Short JGBs on BOJ tightening.
Japan is an inflection point. The Bank of Japan is behind the curve and we think they need to increase rates once or twice. This creates a repricing opportunity in the Japanese bond market.
JGBS MED
Flavio Carpenzano Investment Director, Capital Group 36:08
Buy TIPS as cheap inflation protection.
Breakeven inflation is interesting because the market does not reprice a big reflationary environment. Investing through breakeven is an inexpensive way to protect a portfolio against a potential increase in inflation. You can buy breakeven as a cheap option.
TIP MED
Flavio Carpenzano Investment Director, Capital Group 37:47
Short German Bunds on fiscal pressure.
Germany is going to spend a lot of money on expansion, which will put more supply pressure on the German Bund on the long end. On relative value, we expect more pressure on the German Bund in the euro rates on the long end than in the U.S.
German Bunds (long duration) MED
Shanti Kelemen Portfolio Manager, 7IM 51:05
Long technology sector on AI momentum.
We are still quite positive on equity markets. We recently increased exposure to technology and communication services, which are front and center in the AI trade. Strong earnings revisions and high capex cycle back into hardware providers, providing certainty of buying power.
XLK MED
Shanti Kelemen Portfolio Manager, 7IM 51:45
Long communication services on AI.
We have a fairly large exposure to communication services, which are also front and center in the AI trade. The sector benefits from strong earnings revisions and AI-related demand.
XLC MED
Shanti Kelemen Portfolio Manager, 7IM 51:55
Long energy sector on AI power demand.
We also have a bit of energy exposure which we added in March-April in response to the AI power demand story. Longer-term demand for power related to AI will need to be met, supporting energy.
XLE LOW
Angelina Valavina Head of Natural Resources & Commodities, Fitch Ratings 76:51
Short Brent crude on Strait reopening.
Our current assumption is that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in July. Once reopened, oil prices will fall quickly and sharply to around $80 in August and then $70 in September, as Middle East production ramps up, no material infrastructure damage, and a strong supply response.
BNO MED
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Bloomberg Markets · Jun 02

This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 02, 2026, features Flavio Carpenzano, Shanti Kelemen, Angelina Valavina discussing US Treasuries (long duration), JGBS, TIP, German Bunds (long duration), XLK, XLC, XLE, BNO. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Flavio Carpenzano, Shanti Kelemen, Angelina Valavina  · Tickers: US Treasuries (long duration), JGBS, TIP, German Bunds (long duration), XLK, XLC, XLE, BNO