Ideas
Lululemon turnaround lacks clear catalyst.
Lululemon is losing brand momentum, squeezed by lower-priced competitors like Athleta and Old Navy and by higher-end Alo, and it lacks the denim cycle that revived other apparel retailers. The activist proxy fight may not fix product and brand problems, so he is not buying and sees no clear turnaround catalyst.
Buy Nike on Clark turnaround.
He is buying Nike because the brand is bottoming after its worst multi-year stretch since going public, Caitlin Clark could become the female Michael Jordan with a massive signature shoe opportunity, and insider buying such as Tim Cook as a director supports the setup.
Netflix buyback on breakout above 101.
He has been buying Netflix but sold 85% after the Warner Brothers bid because a messy, lengthy regulatory and political fight could make the stock dead money. He remains long-term bullish and has a buy-stop limit at 101 to re-enter on a breakout.
Uber benefits from fragmented AV market.
Uber's autonomous-vehicle strategy is to partner with many AV players globally and be the interface for a fragmented market. If that works, removing driver take rates could make profitability skyrocket, while the stock trades at about 16 times EBITDA with strong expected growth and the market wrongly fears automation makes it worthless.
Adobe professional ecosystem survives AI threat.
He owns Adobe with a tight stop. The market fears AI creative tools will eliminate professional licenses, but professional designers should still pay for Adobe's integrated high-grade ecosystem. After a large drawdown he is making the bet, though with low confidence.
AI threatens Salesforce terminal value.
Salesforce and enterprise software face terminal-value risk as AI reduces enterprise seats and lets companies build their own workflow software. The market may permanently de-rate SaaS multiples like it did PC makers, so even growing earnings may not be rewarded.
Tech earnings growth outpaced price, healthy.
Technology sector earnings grew about 34% while price return was only about 23%, meaning the sector actually saw valuation compression. That is a healthy setup, and most investors are unaware that tech is cheaper on earnings.
Mag 7 valuations cheaper than last year.
Starting valuations for most Magnificent Seven stocks are lower than a year ago despite strong growth, with Tesla and Broadcom as distorted outliers. The group is cheaper on trailing earnings and may be better supported than investors assume.
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
38:44
Apple too expensive with no growth.
Apple is too expensive at about 32 times earnings with little growth and limited innovation. Buybacks can support it, but he would avoid it among the Magnificent Seven over the next decade unless a new story emerges.
Apple App Store toll protects premium.
Apple's entrenched hardware ecosystem and App Store 30% toll on AI services give it a durable moat. If Siri and AI improve, the premium multiple makes more sense, and any AI service still likely needs access to iOS.
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
40:55
Meta faces TikTok and AI uncertainty.
Meta is the Magnificent Seven name he is most nervous about because Instagram must keep winning the competition with TikTok, its AI strategy and spending are opaque, and social media faces long-term engagement risks from AI bots.
AI capex stumble is top risk.
AI capex is the biggest market risk for 2026. About 65% to 75% of S&P 500 returns, profit, and capital spending since ChatGPT came from 42 AI-linked companies, and tech capex contributed 40% to 45% of recent U.S. GDP growth. If the AI capex story stumbles, the stock market has problems.
Blackstone wins as fringe private credit fails.
Blackstone is one of his largest positions. While private credit stress will cause failures among fringe players, Blackstone is high quality and should weather the cycle better.
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
54:57
International outperformance could attract inflows.
International stocks are up about 30% and emerging markets about 35% with almost no investor attention. If they post another strong year and the dollar keeps falling, a large inflow could follow, though it may take two years of outperformance to change sentiment.
This The Compound News video, published January 02, 2026,
features Josh Brown, Ben Carlson
discussing LULU, NKE, NFLX, UBER, ADBE, CRM, XLK, MAGS, AAPL, META, AIQ, BX, International stocks, EEM.
14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Josh Brown,
Ben Carlson
· Tickers:
LULU,
NKE,
NFLX,
UBER,
ADBE,
CRM,
XLK,
MAGS,
AAPL,
META,
AIQ,
BX,
International stocks,
EEM
