Tesla’s biggest competitor right now is BYD, says Roth Capital Partners’ Craig Irwin

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 02, 2026 at 15:49  |  5:17  |  CNBC
Speakers
Craig Irwin — Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital

Summary

Craig Irwin of Roth Capital Partners discusses Tesla's Q4 2025 production and delivery report. He sees the delivery miss as not meaningful, but the core auto business is a concern. He highlights Tesla's energy storage/Megapack strength as a likely earnings beat driver and says robotaxi/Cyber Cab is the key 2026 valuation piece, while BYD is Tesla's biggest and growing competitor. He also notes intense Chinese competition in robotics/Optimus.

  • Tesla Q4 deliveries missed consensus and annual deliveries fell for a second year.
  • Craig Irwin sees the delivery miss as not meaningful due to a Q3 pull-forward.
  • Tesla's Megapack/energy storage is booming with 14.2 GWh and ~30% gross margins, likely driving a Q4 beat.
  • Storage strength can offset flagging automotive revenue, which declined 16% y/y.
  • Robotaxi/Cyber Cab is viewed as Tesla's biggest 2026 valuation driver but remains early with limited deployment.
  • Optimus is called 'cake dressing' amid intense Chinese robotics competition.
  • BYD is described as Tesla's biggest competitor and growing larger.
  • Tesla is expected to gain EV market share as other automakers retrench.
Ideas
Craig Irwin Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital 0:33
Tesla storage boom offsets weak auto
Tesla's Megapack/energy-storage business is booming, with Q4 Megapack deployments of 14.2 GWh versus 12.5 GWh, likely driving a revenue beat at chunky ~30% gross margins and a possible Q4 gap beat. Storage strength, driven by data-center demand and a stressed grid, can offset the flagging automotive business, making Tesla an obvious beneficiary.
TSLA HIGH
Craig Irwin Senior Research Analyst, Roth Capital 5:08
BYD is Tesla's biggest, growing competitor
BYD is Tesla's biggest competitor right now and is getting bigger than Tesla, indicating strong competitive scale in EVs even as Tesla expects to take share from retrenching rivals.
1211.HK MED
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This CNBC video, published January 02, 2026, features Craig Irwin discussing TSLA, 1211.HK. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Craig Irwin  · Tickers: TSLA, 1211.HK