The Decisive Reason the U.S. Attack on Venezuela Had to Happen 'Now' | Yoon Jae-sung, Research Fellow, Corporate Analysis Team, Hana Securities Research Center

미국의 베네수엘라 공격 '지금'일 수밖에 없는 결정적 이유 | 하나증권 리서치센터 기업분석실 윤재성 연구위원 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 06, 2026 at 23:02  |  40:55  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Kim Min-se — Host
Yoon Jae-sung — Research Fellow

Summary

Kim Min-se opens with a buy-leading-stocks view centered on semiconductors such as SK hynix and Micron. The main interview features Yoon Jae-sung of Hana Securities explaining that the U.S. move on Venezuela is driven by energy security as U.S. crude production peaks. He argues the event can increase heavy crude supply to U.S. and Asian refiners, benefiting independent refiners, selected majors, Korean refiners, and oilfield services, while natural gas remains a risk.

  • Kim Min-se advocates buying market-leading stocks, especially semiconductors like SK hynix and Micron.
  • Yoon Jae-sung says U.S. crude production is peaking and shale growth is constrained.
  • He views the Venezuela action as a U.S. energy-security strategy to secure heavy crude supply.
  • Cheap Venezuelan heavy crude is seen benefiting U.S. independent refiners, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Gulf Coast refining.
  • Heavy crude flows to Asia could lower feedstock costs for Korean refiners, with specific mention of S-Oil, SK Innovation, and GS Caltex.
  • Oilfield services such as Schlumberger and Halliburton could benefit earlier if U.S. policy pushes Venezuela output higher.
  • Natural gas remains a risk because power demand is firm and prices cannot be quickly lowered.
  • The discussion also touches on Guyana, rare earths, Saudi market-share pressure, and coal, but these are not presented as clean trades.
Ideas
Buy leading stocks, especially semiconductors.
Despite index pullbacks, the market is led by semiconductors, and leadership tends to persist; investors who missed the move should buy leading stocks rather than doubt them. He cites SK hynix and Micron as key leaders.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 21:14
ExxonMobil attractive on Guyana, integration.
ExxonMobil is a vertically integrated major with Guyana production growth, and it is attractive as U.S. supermajors look abroad for growth, though the speaker prefers independent refiners for the Venezuela trade.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 27:36
Natural gas remains a price risk.
Natural gas remains a risk because power-generation demand continues and the U.S. cannot quickly lower gas prices, unlike crude oil, which is currently oversupplied; this is a macro risk to monitor rather than a clean long or short.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 28:17
Independent refiners win on cheap heavy crude.
Venezuelan heavy crude can flow cheaply to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners. Independent refiners Marathon Petroleum and Valero are best positioned because they can buy discounted heavy feedstock while selling refined products at market prices, improving margins more than integrated majors.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 29:42
Korean refiners gain cheaper heavy crude.
Heavy crude supplies from Venezuela, Canada, and the Middle East are increasingly flowing to Asia, giving Korean refiners cheaper feedstock. All Korean refiners are positive, with S-Oil likely leading and SK Innovation also able to move.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 30:22
GS Caltex may get Chevron Venezuela crude.
GS Caltex is a 50/50 joint venture between GS and Chevron; because Chevron is the only foreign producer in Venezuela, any Chevron production increase could be sold to GS Caltex, giving it cheap Venezuelan crude and a vertically integrated advantage.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 30:41
Chevron has unique Venezuela production exposure.
Chevron is the only foreign company currently producing oil in Venezuela; if U.S. policy supports a production increase, Chevron can benefit from expanded Venezuelan output and potentially supply crude to its 50/50 GS Caltex joint venture in Korea, creating vertical integration.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 33:26
Oilfield services may lead Venezuela drilling.
If the U.S. actively pushes Venezuela production higher, oilfield service and equipment companies receive orders before drilling and production begin, so Schlumberger and Halliburton could move earlier than refiners, but policy strength is uncertain.
Yoon Jae-sung Research Fellow 35:24
Energy sector is early multi-year value.
U.S. crude production is peaking and set to decline, shale consolidation has exhausted easy domestic growth, and the U.S. must secure overseas energy supply. Energy equities remain relatively undervalued and the sector is in the early stage of a multi-year move through 2030.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 06, 2026, features Kim Min-se, Yoon Jae-sung discussing SMH, 000660.KS, MU, XOM, UNG, MPC, VLO, 010950.KS, 096770.KS, 078930.KS, CVX, SLB, HAL, XLE. 9 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Kim Min-se, Yoon Jae-sung  · Tickers: SMH, 000660.KS, MU, XOM, UNG, MPC, VLO, 010950.KS, 096770.KS, 078930.KS, CVX, SLB, HAL, XLE