Three Possible Paths for Venezuela After Maduro's Ouster

Summary

Jimena Zuniga of Bloomberg Economics discusses three possible paths for Venezuela after Maduro's ouster: a stable pro-West democratic transition, a power vacuum with violence and regional spillovers, or a US-influenced but authoritarian interim government. She says Venezuela's economy and oil production have shrunk dramatically but retain large recovery potential if political and economic normalcy returns. The wide uncertainty centers on who leads, whether armed groups can be controlled, and whether the US remains focused on a democratic transition.

• Three scenarios outlined for post-Maduro Venezuela.
• Best case is a stable, market-friendly, pro-West democracy.
• Worst case is a power vacuum with violence and migration spillovers.
• Intermediate case is a US-influenced authoritarian government.
• Venezuela's economy has fallen to about $100 billion GDP.
• Oil output is about 1 million bpd versus 2.5 million pre-collapse.
• Energy-sector opening is seen as a key long-term recovery driver.
• Military, militias, and foreign actors complicate the transition.