The Venezuelan regime remains intact, says Atlantic Council's Jason Marczak

Summary

Jason Marczak of the Atlantic Council discusses the aftermath of the U.S. operation that removed Nicolás Maduro and put Delcy Rodriguez in power. He argues this is not a true regime change because the Chavista regime remains intact, and he outlines the governance, legal, and hydrocarbon reforms needed before U.S. capital can flow into Venezuela's oil sector. He also describes the dire Venezuelan economy and regional political ripple effects, including tensions with Colombia and the upcoming USMCA review with Mexico.

• Maduro is out and Delcy Rodriguez is in, but the Venezuelan regime remains intact.
• Marczak says Venezuela's oil sector still has very high investment risk due to instability and internal Chavista factionalism.
• U.S. capital inflows would require rule of law, contract enforcement, arbitration resolution, a new hydrocarbons framework, and free elections.
• Current Venezuelan oil investment rules would make foreign investors minority stakeholders to PDVSA.
• Venezuela's economy suffers from 500% inflation and 90% poverty, with Atlantic Council projecting recovery to 2070 under continued Chavismo policies.
• Regional reactions were mostly supportive or muted, but the U.S. is using the operation to pressure Colombia.
• Mexico is described as a strong U.S. partner ahead of this year's USMCA review.