Ideas
Long Brazilian election tail volatility
The 2026 Brazilian election is unusually binary and the market may be underestimating the size of potential asset moves, which can be 30-40% in either direction. They prefer expressing this through dual digital/exotic options expiring around December rather than large directional equity allocations, because such structures can multiply the premium if a large tail move occurs.
Brazilian banks resilient across government changes
Large Brazilian banks are resilient across government changes and continue to perform well, making them a stable core holding while the election and fiscal outlook remain uncertain.
Fiscal adjustment can compress real rates
If the election produces a credible fiscal adjustment, Brazil could see structurally lower rates and a rapid compression in real interest rates. If the current government continues without a credible adjustment signal, the market could panic. This is a conditional setup around Brazilian real rates.
Silver benefits from AI and gold demand
Silver benefits from two macro forces simultaneously: AI-related industrial demand and the same central-bank credibility/gold diversification trend that is lifting gold. He sees silver walking higher because of both factors.
AI companies win over next decade
Despite timing and monetization uncertainty, AI companies are likely to be the winners over the next 5-10 years. He sees this as very evident and favors being positioned in them.
Weak dollar favors EM and Europe
If the global dollar weakens, diversification flows should favor emerging markets, other currencies, and Europe. In that dollar-weak scenario, emerging-market equities and European equities should perform well.
Brazilian utilities offer resilient high real returns
Brazilian electric utilities and sanitation/utilities offer resilient, regulated cash flows with low execution risk and still attractive implied real returns above 10%, even after the compression of the spread versus NTN-B. They are a core resilient allocation independent of the election outcome.
Hold more cash amid uncertain prices
Given uncertain scenarios and less attractive prices, they prefer not to own certain assets at current levels and are comfortable holding more cash than usual while waiting for better entry points.
Cheap energy plus AI lifts risk assets
If the AI/tech revolution combines with abundant cheap energy, productivity should rise, inflation should stay low, and central banks can cut rates more assertively. In that world, broad risk assets are mispriced and should be much higher.
Trump policy supports risk assets in 2026
Trump wants equities up, rates down, and inflation down ahead of the midterms, and is likely to push for a heated market through 2026. Given that policy backdrop, it is difficult not to be positioned in risk assets.
High-carry commodity currencies keep outperforming
In a global diversification scenario, commodity currencies such as the Brazilian real and Australian dollar, and high-carry emerging currencies such as the Mexican peso, tend to continue performing well. The real has especially attractive high real carry, and in 2025 spikes were bought by investors seeking that carry.
Weak global dollar lifts Brazilian stocks
Historically, in every year of the last 20 years when the global dollar weakened, the Brazilian stock market rose, a 100% hit ratio. The DXY is therefore a key macro driver: if the global dollar weakens, Brazilian equities should benefit.
Gold rises on persistent diversification uncertainty
Gold is increasingly driven by portfolio diversification, central-bank demand, and geopolitical/confidence concerns rather than purely economic models. After breaking away from model-justified levels, it can continue rising if global uncertainty persists, and it has no counterparty risk.
Oil oversupplied; strong rally unlikely
The oil market is oversupplied by roughly 3-5 million barrels, similar to the COVID period, so a strong upside oil price shock is unlikely. Lower energy prices would also help global disinflation.
Copper price may fall as supply normalizes
Copper rose due to AI/electricity demand and temporary mine supply disruptions. As those disruptions reverse and supply/demand becomes less tight, copper prices should fall somewhat.
Copper producers better than physical stockpiling
Commodity producers have outperformed commodity prices recently. A better way to get copper exposure may be buying a copper producer rather than stockpiling physical copper, because equities act as a more efficient way to hold exposure to scarcity.
Brazil carry plus US growth wins
The best combination for 2026 is Brazilian equities that provide carry from high local interest rates alongside exposure to US growth. This mix of Brazil carry plus US growth is better than other investment alternatives.
Commodities ex-gold face bad 2026
Commodities excluding gold are likely to have a bad 2026. Oil, other metals, copper, iron ore, and grains should not have a very good year, while gold is treated separately due to diversification demand.
This Market Makers video, published January 19, 2026,
features Rafael Camargo, Henrique Esteter, Felipe Hirai
discussing IBOV, Brazilian banks, Brazilian real interest rates, SILVER, AI companies, EEM, VGK, Brazilian utilities, CASH, Global risk assets, SPY, BRL, MXN, AUD, BOVA11.SA, GLD, WTI, COPPER, COPX, Commodities ex-gold.
18 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Rafael Camargo,
Henrique Esteter,
Felipe Hirai
· Tickers:
IBOV,
Brazilian banks,
Brazilian real interest rates,
SILVER,
AI companies,
EEM,
VGK,
Brazilian utilities,
CASH,
Global risk assets,
SPY,
BRL,
MXN,
AUD,
BOVA11.SA,
GLD,
WTI,
COPPER,
COPX,
Commodities ex-gold
