O MERCADO ESTÁ IGNORANDO O MAIOR RISCO DO BRASIL EM 2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 19, 2026 at 23:00  |  17:14  |  Market Makers
Speakers
Carlos Woelz — Founder, Kapitalo
Bruno Cordeiro — Portfolio Manager, Kapitalo

Summary

The segment features Carlos Woelz and Bruno Cordeiro of Kapitalo discussing the main Brazil risk for 2026-2027: market complacency around a possible Lula continuity and its fiscal consequences. They argue that current debt growth and low risk premiums mean Brazilian assets are not pricing a forced fiscal adjustment or a Lula reelection. Carlos also sees attractive premium in Brazilian real rates, while Bruno outlines a conditional positive scenario if power alternation leads to a policy change.

  • Market may be underpricing fiscal risk from Lula continuity.
  • Debt growth of 3-5% of GDP per year could force a crisis.
  • Brazilian equity and credit premiums are seen as too low.
  • NTN-B implied inflation does not price explosive debt growth.
  • Carlos sees substantial premium in Brazilian real rates.
  • Bruno says power alternation could sharply lower equilibrium real rates.
  • 2014 is used as a historical parallel for fiscal adjustment pressure.
Ideas
Carlos Woelz Founder, Kapitalo 1:03
Brazil fiscal crisis risk is underpriced.
Carlos argues the market is too calm about a continuation of Lula's government and current economic policy. If there is no policy change, debt growth of 3-5% of GDP per year could force a large fiscal adjustment under market pressure, creating political and economic feedback that may trigger a significant crisis. This makes Brazilian assets risky to own.
EWZ HIGH
Bruno Cordeiro Portfolio Manager, Kapitalo 8:46
Brazilian asset premiums too low for risk.
Bruno says the market is complacent about Lula continuity and that Brazilian asset prices do not reflect the risk of a Lula reelection. Equity and debt risk premiums are very low, NTN-B implied inflation is low, and credit investors lack sufficient premium for the macro adjustment that would likely be forced. If Lula is reelected, Brazilian assets would reprice sharply lower.
EWZ HIGH
Bruno Cordeiro Portfolio Manager, Kapitalo 8:46
Brazilian asset premiums too low for risk.
Bruno says the market is complacent about Lula continuity and that Brazilian asset prices do not reflect the risk of a Lula reelection. Equity and debt risk premiums are very low, NTN-B implied inflation is low, and credit investors lack sufficient premium for the macro adjustment that would likely be forced. If Lula is reelected, Brazilian assets would reprice sharply lower.
Brazilian credit HIGH
Carlos Woelz Founder, Kapitalo 16:56
Brazilian real rates carry attractive premium.
Carlos argues the Brazilian yield curve does not price a return to very low real interest rates, meaning real rates currently carry a substantial premium. He sees this as attractive compensation for investors in Brazilian real-rate instruments such as NTN-Bs.
NTN-B MED
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This Market Makers video, published January 19, 2026, features Carlos Woelz, Bruno Cordeiro discussing EWZ, Brazilian credit, NTN-B. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Carlos Woelz, Bruno Cordeiro  · Tickers: EWZ, Brazilian credit, NTN-B