Name: Why Grayscale Sees ATHs Before Q3, With ETH Outperforming: Bits + Bips
Uploaded: 2026-01-19T18:37:44+00:00
Duration: 2826 s

Speakers

Zach Pandl — Head of Research, Grayscale

Steve Ehrlich — Host, Bits + Bips: The Interview

Summary

Steve Ehrlich interviews Zach Pandl of Grayscale about crypto markets after a volatile policy week. They discuss the stalled U.S. market structure bill, Wall Street's crypto buildout, ETF flows, Fed independence, and geopolitical risks. Zach remains bullish on Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high in H1 2026 and expects Ethereum to outperform, while also highlighting macro hedges like precious metals and a weaker dollar.

The market structure bill markup was delayed, but Grayscale expects regulatory clarity and ETF launches to keep progressing.
Wall Street institutions are building crypto infrastructure without waiting for legislation.
Bitcoin is expected by Grayscale to make a new all-time high above $126,000 before mid-2026.
Ethereum is favored to outperform because of DeFi, stablecoins, tokenization, staking ETFs, and some macro bid.
Solana and a small set of smart-contract platforms are seen as long-term category leaders.
Fed independence concerns are framed as inflationary and dollar-debasing, supporting alternative stores of value.
Precious metals are benefiting from the debasement trade, while Treasury demand faces longer-term risks.

Ideas

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 0:00

Bitcoin reaches new ATH in H1 2026

Grayscale expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, with a reasonable summary being something above $126,000 by June 30. The bull market drivers are macro demand for alternative stores of value and regulatory clarity; ETFs have come back to life, advised wealth can keep flowing in, and offshore futures may releverage. The main risk is unpredictable OG long-term holder profit taking, though he thinks most of that is through and it is visible on-chain.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 0:05

Ethereum outperforms on clarity, macro bid

Ethereum is his top major asset for 2026 and he expects it to continue outperforming. It benefits more than Bitcoin from regulatory clarity because DeFi, stablecoins, and tokenization are centered on Ethereum; it may also capture the macro bid as a scarce commodity with low inflation. ETFs are ready, staking is available in ETFs, and it is positioned for institutional adoption.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 4:43

Regulatory clarity and ETF demand lift crypto

Regulatory clarity for crypto is improving regardless of the market structure bill: SEC and agency progress, generic ETP listing standards, and more ETF launches are expected. A market structure bill would clarify commodity/security status and reduce downside risk for the asset class. Advised wealth is still underallocated to crypto, which could create a persistent ETF-driven bid across crypto assets.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 11:23

DeFi disrupts bank payments, trading, lending

DeFi's bigger-picture vision is to compete with all aspects of traditional finance, but today it excels and is most threatening in crossborder payments, trading of crypto-native assets, and collateralized lending. Those are the bank businesses DeFi will go after first, and continued growth is a threat to incumbents' margins.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 14:43

Debasement trade keeps precious metals bid

Macro imbalances and demand for alternative stores of value are driving capital into foreign currencies, precious metals, and industrial metals. The debasement trade is still running in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, and the same forces have now arrived in crypto.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 28:19

Solana leads tokenized equity trading growth

Solana has many positive ecosystem developments and he expects it to continue leading, particularly in areas requiring higher turnover such as tokenized equity trading. It is more about regulatory clarity and technology adoption than the macro store-of-value bid, but he expects a lot of growth in that area this year.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 32:36

Few smart-contract platforms capture most fees

Smart contract platforms are the cornerstone of crypto investing beyond Bitcoin. There are around 40-45 large projects, but only about five or half a dozen have differentiated strategies to maintain pricing power and capture most fees. Ethereum competes for high-quality block space and decentralization, while Solana and Sui compete on speed and low cost; more smart-contract tokens may become available through ETFs this year.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 38:34

Fed risk drives dollar debasement

If the Fed becomes dependent on the fiscal situation or election cycles, it will likely lead to higher average inflation. The root issue is the US debt problem, which creates incentives for cheap borrowing and faster growth. His conclusion is higher inflation over time, a weaker dollar and dollar debasement, and persistent demand for alternative stores of value.

Zach Pandl Head of Research, Grayscale 41:18

Deficits and geopolitics threaten Treasury demand

The key macro question from geopolitical events is whether they lead to bigger deficits, more bond issuance, and reduced willingness of foreign investors to buy US Treasuries. He sees tail risks that nation-building could worsen deficits and regionalization could reduce demand for Treasuries and dollars, making the Treasury demand backdrop fragile.

Why Grayscale Sees ATHs Before Q3, With ETH Outperforming: Bits + Bips

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