Fed's Bold Announcement: Powell Makes Shocking Economic Forecast | Lobo Tiggre
Speakers
Lobo Tiggre
— Founder, The Independent Speculator
David Lin
— Founder & Host, The David Lin Report / ex-Anchor, Kitco News
Summary
Lobo Tiggre reacts to the June 18, 2025 FOMC decision, where the Fed held rates steady and Powell warned about tariff-driven inflation while growth projections were cut. Lobo sees a stagflationary, inflationary outlook and expects a good chance of no rate cuts this year. He remains bullish on commodities, especially gold, silver, copper, and uranium, and prefers selected mining equities over ETFs. He also views oil as supply-glutted and less attractive than copper.
- The Fed kept rates unchanged; Powell stressed uncertainty and tariff-related inflation.
- Lobo interprets the Fed's lower growth and higher inflation signals as stagflationary.
- Trump's tariffs, debt-ceiling expansion, and spending are seen as inflationary for commodities.
- Gold is supported by central-bank diversification, geopolitics, and inflation; silver may outperform if its breakout confirms.
- Copper is favored on projected supply deficits, while oil is described as glutted and less attractive.
- Uranium is bullish on fundamentals, technicals, and Trump's nuclear permitting push.
- In mining equities, Lobo favors due-diligence-selected gold/silver miners over ETFs.
- Lobo sees a good chance of no Fed cuts this year and criticizes Powell's communication.
Ideas
Inflationary regime supports commodities broadly.
Lobo expects an inflationary or stagflationary regime: the Fed lowered its growth projection while Powell strongly warned that tariff-related inflation is coming, and Trump's broader agenda of tariffs, debt-ceiling expansion, spending, and re-industrialization is inflationary. He says the outlook is inflationary for the foreseeable investable future and that this is good for commodities as a class.
Gold supported by inflation, central banks, geopolitics.
Gold tends to lead inflation, and Lobo sees the current environment as highly supportive: central banks are diversifying reserves out of the dollar after its weaponization, geopolitical conflicts are rising, Trump wants a weaker dollar and inflation, and there is a strong underlying bid under gold. He views recent pullbacks as minor, says high inflation is ultimately good for gold, and argues that looking backward too much may be a mistake if the post-2022 paradigm has changed. He also sees gold as crisis insurance with no counterparty risk that works even when electricity fails.
Silver breakout supports adding on confirmation.
Silver's recent breakout is significant, and in past bull markets silver has often lagged gold early and then more than caught up on a percentage basis. Lobo is not short or bearish, already owns some, and would make greater efforts to add more silver if the breakout continues and confirms. He notes the industrial side could face a Trump-shock headwind, but if silver-specific strength continues it is very bullish. He also views silver as crisis insurance alongside gold.
Copper supply deficit plus inflation is bullish.
Copper is Dr. Copper and essential to economic activity, and unlike oil it is not in a supply glut. Lobo cites mainstream projections of a widening copper supply gap because not enough new copper is coming online, and he says an inflationary backdrop plus a supply shortfall makes copper look like a no-brainer. He really likes copper and plans to buy more copper stocks, potentially around the same time he piles back into silver.
Oil glut makes copper more attractive.
Oil is in a supply glut and OPEC is ramping back up, so even with the Israel-Iran war oil has not spiked as much as might have been expected. Lobo prefers copper over oil and views oil as less attractive due to the surplus, though he acknowledges war-driven spikes are possible.
Selected miners outperform; avoid mining ETFs.
Lobo agrees gold and silver miners are the speculative chips at the casino compared with bullion as prudence and insurance. He says you buy gold for prudence and gold stocks to speculate for wealth creation, but due diligence and stock selection matter, and he would not use an ETF in this space if seeking alpha or a hockey-stick return. He notes about 10% of roughly 1,000 resource companies get thumbs up in his database, and his thumbs-up names have outperformed thumbs-down names.
Selected miners outperform; avoid mining ETFs.
Lobo agrees gold and silver miners are the speculative chips at the casino compared with bullion as prudence and insurance. He says you buy gold for prudence and gold stocks to speculate for wealth creation, but due diligence and stock selection matter, and he would not use an ETF in this space if seeking alpha or a hockey-stick return. He notes about 10% of roughly 1,000 resource companies get thumbs up in his database, and his thumbs-up names have outperformed thumbs-down names.
Uranium fundamentals, technicals, Trump nuclear tailwind.
Uranium fundamentals have been positive for a long time; after the January 2024 spike and subsequent correction, Lobo says it looks like uranium is carving out a bottom and the technicals are aligning with his bullish fundamental view. Trump's pro-nuclear stance and push to expedite permitting are a durable tailwind for specific uranium companies. He put together a shopping list composed entirely of uranium stocks, though he would not overpay or chase everything.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published June 19, 2025, features Lobo Tiggre discussing DBC, GLD, SILVER, COPPER, Copper stocks, WTI, GDX, Mining ETFs, URA, Uranium Stocks. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Lobo Tiggre · Tickers: DBC, GLD, SILVER, COPPER, Copper stocks, WTI, GDX, Mining ETFs, URA, Uranium Stocks