Name: Markets In Crisis As Middle East War Breaks Out, Sell Now Or Wait? | Michael Gayed
Uploaded: 2025-06-13T21:52:23+00:00
Duration: 1654 s

Speakers

Michael Gayed — Founder, The Lead-Lag Report

Summary

Michael Gayed joins David Lin to assess markets amid the June 2025 Israel-Iran escalation. He sees geopolitical risk complacency, favors energy, uranium, European defense, financials, and a deregulation-focused small/mid-cap strategy through FMKT. He is long-term bullish but near-term cautious on gold, expects Bitcoin may diverge as a counterparty hedge, watches for an eventual Treasury safe-haven trade, and holds a contrarian dollar call.

Israel-Iran strikes lifted oil and gold and pressured stocks, with the oil move amplified by short covering.
Gayed sees complacency around geopolitical risk and warns a broader equity correction is possible.
He favors energy and uranium, citing war risk, deregulation, and executive orders.
He likes European defense as a non-correlated play and sees financials helped by deregulation.
His FMKT ETF targets deregulation beneficiaries, especially mid/small caps, with energy, gold, and Bitcoin exposure.
Gold is long-term bullish but currently in a distribution/sideways phase.
Bitcoin may diverge from Nasdaq as a counterparty hedge in a broader correction.
He watches long-duration Treasuries for an eventual flight-to-safety trade and has a contrarian bullish dollar view.

Ideas

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 2:10

Equities face complacency-driven correction risk.

He warns that geopolitical risk complacency and market underreaction could lead to a broader equity correction, and he believes equities may need to fall to force money into Treasuries, so he is watching for escalation-driven risk-off pain.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 3:32

Energy favored on war and deregulation.

He is bullish on the energy sector, expecting it to benefit from geopolitical conflict and potentially repeat 2022-style relative outperformance, and he favors it independently because deregulation should help energy.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 3:54

FMKT is deregulation-focused small/mid-cap ETF.

FMKT is a deregulation-focused ETF managed by Gayed, designed to exploit a massive regulatory rollback through AI-screened small/mid-cap stocks, with energy as the largest allocation and gold and Bitcoin as pure deregulation expressions.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 3:58

Uranium equities benefit from deregulation tailwinds.

Within energy, uranium equities are particularly attractive because deregulation and related executive orders should benefit them, and he says they are already getting good traction.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 4:12

Bitcoin can diverge and hit highs.

Bitcoin can diverge from the Nasdaq and act as a counterparty hedge during a broader correction or credit event, which could attract institutional money and push it to new highs; deregulation and crypto-friendly policy also support it.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 4:22

Treasuries eventual safe-haven trade, timing uncertain.

He expects long-duration Treasuries to eventually regain a risk-off and flight-to-safety role, especially if war escalation becomes deflationary; timing is uncertain because yields may rise first in a reverse-carry sequence.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 4:50

European defense offers non-correlated geopolitical exposure.

European defense is attractive because it has been working, benefits from geopolitical tension, and offers non-correlated behavior versus broad S&P 500 exposure; he would look at European-focused ETFs.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 9:23

Deregulation favors mid- and small-caps.

If deregulation continues, it should drive a rotation from large caps into mid- and small-cap stocks, which are more directly helped by reduced regulation and less exposed to the largest tech names.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 11:21

Gold long-term bullish; near-term distribution watch.

He remains long-term bullish on gold, but after a FOMO momentum phase he sees it in a sideways distribution/top formation; it still belongs in a portfolio as a diversifier and could break higher after a time-based correction.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 14:21

Financials benefit from deregulation selectively.

Financials look interesting because deregulation benefits the sector, but he would be selective and favor companies most suited to a reduction in rules and regulations.

Michael Gayed Founder, The Lead-Lag Report 14:44

Contrarian dollar comeback is speculative.

He is contrarian bullish on the U.S. dollar because almost everyone is bearish; it could surprise to the upside at least temporarily, but he frames it as a speculative catch-the-falling-knife trade.

Markets In Crisis As Middle East War Breaks Out, Sell Now Or Wait? | Michael Gayed

Summary

Ideas

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