Ideas
Add energy and oil on dips.
Oxbow already held energy-sector positions and significant oil exposure and has been incrementally adding to energy. It assumes normal oil is around $65-$70 per barrel, so dips toward $60 or below are buying opportunities given expectations for higher inflation over the rest of the decade. The muted energy-equity reaction to the Israel-Iran oil spike suggests the market views that event as acute rather than a permanent oil-price reset.
Hold defense and Lockheed Martin.
Oxbow owns Lockheed Martin in its long-term growth stock portfolio and plans to keep it. Defense companies tend to trade in consistent valuation ranges and grow earnings at mid-to-high single-digit rates, so Oxbow likes some defense exposure, though it will not chase the group after sharp rallies.
Stay long gold and silver.
Oxbow has been bullish on precious metals for years and keeps roughly 10% of its high-income strategy in precious metals or precious-metals-exposed companies. It expects rising or normalizing rates, stickier inflation, large deficits and declining dollar purchasing power to keep gold and silver supported over the next 5-10 years, though it will not trade short-term swings.
Healthcare can outperform over coming years.
In the long-term growth stock portfolio, Oxbow is maintaining healthcare exposure and believes the sector has an opportunity to outperform the overall market over the next several years.
Otis offers sticky cash-flow resilience.
Oxbow has been adding to Otis Worldwide because it is the leading global elevator manufacturer with sticky maintenance cash flows and high cash-flow visibility, which should help it hold up if there is an economic shock while markets trade at record valuations.
Yum Brands offers royalty-based cash visibility.
Oxbow has been adding to Yum Brands as one of the best-run global restaurant chains. Its royalty revenue model gives high visibility and resilient cash flows if there is an economic shock.
Favor short Treasuries, avoid long bonds.
With inflation risk and rising long-term rates, Oxbow avoids the long end of the bond curve and keeps fixed income primarily in maturities of two years or shorter. It can buy short-term Treasuries around 4% annualized about 18 months out, while long-term bonds risk price declines if rates rise.
Favor short Treasuries, avoid long bonds.
With inflation risk and rising long-term rates, Oxbow avoids the long end of the bond curve and keeps fixed income primarily in maturities of two years or shorter. It can buy short-term Treasuries around 4% annualized about 18 months out, while long-term bonds risk price declines if rates rise.
Do not add to expensive S&P.
The S&P 500 is back near record highs at about 22x forward earnings, so Oxbow would not deploy more cash now. If projected earnings materialize the index could rise another 5%-8%, but the valuation leaves little margin for error; Oxbow would start looking to buy below 5500 and see more opportunities around 5000, 4800, and 4500.
Buy energy majors with high FCF yields.
Within energy, Oxbow is buying high-quality businesses like Chevron and ConocoPhillips because they offer 8%-10% free-cash-flow yields, which is attractive when the overall market trades around a 4% free-cash-flow yield.
Keep some tech, avoid overconcentration.
The S&P's record profit-margin expansion has been driven mostly by technology, and including tech-like Alphabet, Meta and Amazon, the group is nearing 40% of the index. Oxbow wants some technology exposure because AI may make labor more efficient and expand software margins, but it wants more balance than having almost half the portfolio in one sector.
Homebuilders pressured by high rates.
Homebuilders are starting to struggle because mortgage rates have been stuck around 7%, existing-home inventory is rising back toward 2018-2019 levels, and rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure.
Avoid rate-sensitive REITs and utilities.
REITs and utilities are rate-sensitive; if long-term rates rise toward 6%, their valuation multiples could compress. Oxbow is mindful of the downside and, outside very selective ideas, does not need to play in those areas much now.
This The David Lin Report video, published June 16, 2025,
features Chance Finucane
discussing XLE, WTI, ITA, LMT, GLD, SILVER, GLTR, XLV, OTIS, YUM, SHY, TLT, SPY, CVX, COP, XLK, XHB, XLRE, UTILITIES.
13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Chance Finucane
· Tickers:
XLE,
WTI,
ITA,
LMT,
GLD,
SILVER,
GLTR,
XLV,
OTIS,
YUM,
SHY,
TLT,
SPY,
CVX,
COP,
XLK,
XHB,
XLRE,
UTILITIES
