Treasuries Sink, Oil Jumps as Markets Weigh Iran | Bloomberg Businessweek Daily 3/02/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Context (March 2, 2026): The U.S. is in Day 3 of "Operation Epic Fury," conducting strikes on Iran. Oil (WTI) has spiked 6% to ~$80+, and the 10-Year Treasury yield has broken above 4.0% on inflation fears.
- The Inflation "Skunk": Jamie Dimon and Mike Contopoulos agree that inflation is sticky (around 3%) and the war is inflationary. The bond market sell-off (higher yields) is the correct rational response to war and supply chain disruption.
- Private Credit Cracks: Danny Moses and Mike Contopoulos both warn of a liquidity crisis in private credit/equity, comparing the retail push into these opaque assets to the pre-2008 subprime era.
- The AI Efficiency Paradox: Danny Moses notes that companies (like Block) are using the "AI pivot" to justify massive workforce reductions (40%), which supports margins but threatens white-collar employment and the broader economy.
Trade Ideas
Contopoulos explicitly says to be "Underweight long-duration assets, speculative U.S. technology... China we would put in that boat." * Spec Tech (ARKK proxy): High rates discount future earnings heavily; war uncertainty kills risk appetite for profitless tech. * Long Duration (TLT): Inflation = Higher Yields = Lower Bond Prices. * China (FXI proxy): Geopolitical alignment (Iran/Russia/China axis) makes Chinese assets toxic during a U.S. conflict. AVOID/SHORT Speculative Tech, Long Bonds, and Chinese Equities. A sudden deflationary bust or peace treaty could spark a massive "dash for trash" rally in speculative assets.
Charlie Pellett reports WTI Crude is up 6.1% and "Oil majors all getting [a bid] today," specifically naming Exxon Mobil (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP). Jamie Dimon notes that if the war is prolonged, "all bets are off" regarding oil prices. The U.S. attack on Iran and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates an immediate supply shock. In a kinetic war scenario involving a major oil producer, capital flees to upstream producers (XOM/COP) and the commodity itself (USO) as a hedge against stagflation. LONG Energy Majors and Oil Futures. A quick ceasefire or diplomatic resolution causes a rapid deflationary unwind in oil premiums.
Danny Moses is bearish on the *asset class* of private credit, warning of illiquidity. However, when asked how to play it, he explicitly says: "If I were a retail investor... I would be buying Blackstone, KKR... parent companies... that have permanent capital." This is classic Second-Order thinking. While the underlying private credit loans may freeze or suffer defaults (bad for the holders of the debt), the Asset Managers (BX, KKR) hold "permanent capital" (fees are locked in) and are publicly traded liquid stocks. They are the "arms dealers" of the credit world, insulated from the immediate liquidity mismatch that retail investors in private credit funds face. LONG Alternative Asset Managers. A systemic regulatory crackdown on private credit or a massive wave of defaults that impairs their fee-generating AUM.
Michael Contopoulos
Director of Fixed Income, Richard Bernstein Advisors
Contopoulos advises investors to be "Overweight shorter-duration assets, companies that pay dividends, value." With the 10-Year yield rising (prices falling) due to war-induced inflation, long-duration assets get crushed. Short duration (SHV) removes interest rate risk. Dividend growers (VIG) provide equity exposure with a cash-flow buffer that acts as an inflation hedge, unlike speculative growth stocks which rely on distant future cash flows. LONG Short-Duration Cash & Dividend Growth. Yields plummeting (bond rally) would cause short-duration cash to underperform long-duration bonds.
Danny Moses
Co-Host, The Best Business Show
Danny Moses explicitly states: "Long Gold... Long Gold Miners." He also cites concerns about U.S. debt hitting $50 Trillion and the Fed being unable to cut rates due to sticky inflation. The convergence of Geopolitical conflict (Iran), Fiscal dominance (US Debt spiraling), and sticky Inflation creates the "Perfect Storm" for hard assets. Gold acts as the ultimate hedge against the debasement required to fund the war and the debt. Miners (GDX) offer a leveraged play on the spot price. LONG Gold and Gold Miners. A sudden strengthening of the USD or a hawkish Fed crushing inflation expectations.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published March 02, 2026, features Michael Contopoulos, Charlie Pellett, Danny Moses discussing ARKK, TLT, FXI, XOM, COP, USO, KKR, BX, VIG, SHV, GLD, GDX. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Michael Contopoulos, Charlie Pellett, Danny Moses · Tickers: ARKK, TLT, FXI, XOM, COP, USO, KKR, BX, VIG, SHV, GLD, GDX