Iran Strike Shock: Panic Selling Just Starting, What Gets Hit Next? | Chris Vermeulen
Speakers
Chris Vermeulen — Chief Market Strategist, The Technical Traders
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- War News as a Capitulation Signal: The sharp spike in oil and gold following the Iran strikes is interpreted as a "capitulation move" or exhaustion gap. Historically, when price gaps up vertically into resistance on headline war news, it often marks a short-term top rather than a breakout.
- Cash is King: Despite the intraday "buy the dip" bounce in equities, the strategist has moved his portfolio entirely to cash. He views the current market structure as a "bear flag" and believes the Nasdaq is hanging by a thread, likely to break lower after a brief 1-2% technical bounce.
- The Dollar/Gold Anomaly: A rare correlation is occurring where both the US Dollar and Gold are rising simultaneously. This signals extreme global fear; however, the strategist warns that if equities crash, liquidity needs often force a sell-off in gold and miners initially, similar to 2008.
Trade Ideas
The strategist explicitly states, "We moved to cash." He notes the Nasdaq has broken short-term support and is forming a "bear flag." While there is an intraday bounce (1-2% upside potential), this is viewed as "noise" within a larger breakdown. The "Magnificent 7" stocks look weak, and the market is making lower highs. The risk of a major leg down outweighs the potential of a short-term bounce. Move to Cash / Avoid exposure. The "buy the dip" mentality could persist longer than expected, pushing indices back above resistance levels (approx. 6960 for S&P futures).
Bitcoin is in a confirmed bear market, trading below key moving averages with a series of bear flags. Bitcoin is acting as a high-beta risk asset, moving in lockstep with the Nasdaq. Since the Nasdaq is breaking down, Bitcoin is "leading the way" lower. The technical pattern suggests a drop to the 0.618 Fibonacci extension. Bearish. Target price is approximately $51,000 - $52,000. A sudden "risk-on" rotation in the broader stock market would likely drag Bitcoin higher temporarily.
Bonds are "coming to life" and moving up on days when stocks show fear, re-establishing their defensive correlation. TLT is trying to build a base but remains in a long-term downtrend. It needs to clear specific resistance levels ($91-$92) to confirm a "rounding bottom" formation. Watch for a breakout above $92. A move above $100 would confirm a new bull market. Persistent inflation or Fed hawkishness could keep yields high and bond prices suppressed.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders
Oil spiked 11-12% overnight on the Iran news, gapping above the 150-day moving average and into resistance, but has since given back half those gains. Big gaps on headline news are typically "fade the news" events. The long-term trend for oil is still a series of lower highs (bear market). This spike represents panic buying/short covering (capitulation) rather than sustainable demand. Short/Fade the rally. Expect price to fill the gap and fall back into its previous range. Significant escalation in the Middle East (e.g., Strait of Hormuz closure) could sustain the fear premium.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders
Silver is underperforming gold and recently printed a massive red bearish candle. Money is flowing out of physical silver and into miners, leaving the spot price weak. The chart shows "inside bars" following a drop, which is a bearish continuation pattern (similar to the 2011 crash structure). Avoid. Expect lower pricing. A massive breakout in Gold could eventually drag Silver higher via sympathy.
Chris Vermeulen
Chief Market Strategist, TheTechnicalTraders
Gold is up 2% on war news but is hitting "peak price on peak news." While the long-term target is $6,100, the current move is exhausted. Buying at vertical resistance during a news spike is dangerous. The chart needs to consolidate and build a "launchpad" (bull flag) before a safe entry is possible. Wait for a pullback/consolidation before entering. Immediate escalation of war could force a breakout without a pullback, leaving sideline investors behind.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published March 02, 2026, features Chris Vermeulen discussing SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, USO, SLV, GLD. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Chris Vermeulen · Tickers: SPY, QQQ, BTC, TLT, USO, SLV, GLD