Trump's New 10% Tariff Takes Effect; Dimon Warns on Credit Risks | Bloomberg Brief 2/24/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Global Trade War Escalation (2026): President Trump’s 10% global tariffs have officially taken effect, with a threat to increase to 15%. China has retaliated by banning rare earth mineral exports to specific Japanese companies.
- AI Bifurcation: A sharp divergence is occurring in the AI trade. "Intermediated" software companies and legacy tech (IBM) are selling off due to displacement fears (AI writing code), while hardware/infrastructure (TSMC, Storage) rebounds.
- Credit Cycle Warning: Jamie Dimon explicitly compares the current credit environment to 2005-2007, warning of "dumb things" happening in private credit and AI-linked lending, suggesting a potential credit event is forming.
- Regulatory Crackdown on Copycats: The SEC and regulators are targeting "copycat" weight loss drug providers, specifically hitting Hims & Hers.
Trade Ideas
"All AI is China and Asian companies... TSMC and all of the companies that make the chips, they rebounded." Conversely, IBM suffered a massive drop (worst since 2000) after reports that Anthropic's Claude can replace COBOL, threatening IBM's mainframe moat. SanDisk (WDC) is up on data storage demand. Keysight (KEYS) is up on AI testing demand. The market is rotating out of "intermediated" software and legacy tech that AI renders obsolete (IBM/COBOL) and into the "picks and shovels" required to build the AI (Chips, Storage, Testing). The "AI Doom" report suggests structural unemployment for white-collar coding, which is bearish for legacy systems but bullish for the hardware enabling that shift. Long Hardware/Infrastructure (TSM, WDC, KEYS). Short Legacy Tech exposed to AI coding displacement (IBM). Regulatory intervention in AI development or a broader tech valuation reset.
The Japanese Prime Minister voiced apprehension over further rate hikes. The Yen weakened substantially against the Dollar. The market expected the Bank of Japan to normalize rates (hike). The political leadership is now blocking this to support growth/inflation. With the US Fed potentially holding rates or cutting slower than expected, the yield differential widens, crushing the Yen. Short JPY (Long USDJPY). The "Rate Check" mentioned by Scott Bessent (US Treasury) turns into actual FX intervention to stop the Dollar's rise.
Hims & Hers (HIMS) is down significantly due to "regulatory drama on its copycat drugs" and a new SEC probe regarding document preservation. The regulatory moat around GLP-1 agonists is hardening. If regulators crack down on compounded/copycat versions, the volume flows back to the patent holders (Novo Nordisk/Eli Lilly) and crushes the business model of the copycats (Hims). Short HIMS (Regulatory risk realization). Long NVO/LLY (Moat protection). HIMS successfully navigates the lawsuit/SEC probe; patent holders face supply shortages allowing copycats to persist.
"Paramount submitted a higher offer to buy Warner Bros... improves on the $30 a share all-cash proposal." A bidding war or a firmed-up acquisition offer puts a floor under the target's stock price. If the offer is $30+ and cash, the stock should trade near that price less deal risk premium. Long WBD (Target of acquisition). Antitrust regulators block the deal; Paramount withdraws the offer.
Jamie Dimon says he sees "parallels to the time before the 2008 financial crisis" (specifically 2005-2007). He cites "dumb things" being done in lending, specifically regarding AI and private markets. When the CEO of the largest bank warns of 2007-style exuberance in shadow banking/private credit, it signals a flight to quality. In a credit flush, large G-SIBs (JPM) with fortress balance sheets gain market share while unregulated/aggressive lenders suffer defaults. Long Quality Financials (JPM). Avoid/Short High-Yield/Private Credit exposure. Dimon is early (as he often is), and the "dumb" lending continues to generate yield for another 12 months.
Vonnie Quinn
Anchor, Bloomberg
"China has banned the export of rare earth minerals to several Japanese companies." This is retaliation for the new US/Global tariffs. China dominates rare earth processing. Banning exports to US allies (Japan) creates an immediate supply shock. This forces price appreciation for the commodity and drives capital toward non-Chinese producers (like MP Materials) as strategic assets. Long Rare Earths (REMX / MP). China reverses policy or finds loopholes; rapid development of alternative battery chemistries.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 24, 2026, features Vonnie Quinn, Skyler Montgomery Koning, Abeer Abu Omar, Jamie Dimon discussing IBM, JPY, NVO, LLY, WBD, BKLN, REMX, MP. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Vonnie Quinn, Skyler Montgomery Koning, Abeer Abu Omar, Jamie Dimon · Tickers: IBM, JPY, NVO, LLY, WBD, BKLN, REMX, MP