Here's the Committee's discretionary playbook

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 24, 2026 at 19:00  |  4:03  |  CNBC

Summary

  • The panel debates the divergence between Consumer Staples (+15% YTD) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.5% YTD), noting that Discretionary performance is heavily skewed by AMZN and TSLA.
  • Jim Lebenthal argues the consumer remains resilient due to low unemployment and wage gains, viewing recent pullbacks in travel and leisure as valuation resets rather than structural breaks.
  • Joe Terranova disagrees, highlighting a breakdown in momentum for many discretionary names (Carvana, Expedia, DoorDash) while pivoting to high-quality "Halo" stocks like Ulta and Williams-Sonoma.
  • Josh Brown warns against chasing expensive Staples (Costco, Walmart) solely for safety, suggesting the trade is crowded, while identifying specific discretionary winners like TJX.
Trade Ideas
Jim Lebenthal Investment Committee Member 0:41
Speaker notes WYNN pulled back from 130 to 110 and DAL shares are down despite planes and airports being "packed." The pullback is attributed to the stocks getting "ahead of their skis" (valuation) rather than operational flaws. With low unemployment and wage gains continuing, the long-term trend of consumers seeking experiences remains intact. LONG (Buy the dip on valuation reset). Rising oil prices affecting airlines; persistent consumer slowdown.
Joe Terranova Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners 2:02
Speaker points out these names are "seeing a breakdown in the momentum" or "not working." Specifically mentions Expedia is "easily disrupted by AI." Unlike the "Halo" winners, these stocks are technically broken or facing structural threats (AI for Expedia), making them dangerous holds in a shaky discretionary environment. AVOID / SHORT. Unexpected resurgence in speculative growth/momentum factors.
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 2:03
Speaker states, "You could pick out winners like TJX. Sure. No problem." Despite the broader sector weakness, off-price retail remains a specific bright spot where the consumer is still active. LONG. Inventory issues or margin compression.
Joe Terranova Senior Managing Director, Virtus Investment Partners 2:05
Speaker explicitly lists these as the "names that are working for us" in the discretionary space. These companies fit the "Halo investment thesis" (high quality/momentum), diverging from the broader weakness seen in other discretionary stocks. LONG (Quality/Momentum play). Broader consumer spending contraction.
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management 2:27
Speaker observes these staples stocks have "all like doubled and are very expensive." Investors are crowding into Staples for safety, pushing valuations to unsustainable levels. Buying them now just because they are "defensive" ignores the valuation risk. AVOID (Valuation concerns). Market volatility drives further capital flight into safety assets regardless of price.
Josh Brown CEO, Ritholtz Wealth Management
Speaker notes XLY is "42% Amazon and Tesla" and requires a "gigantic asterisk." The ETF does not accurately reflect the health of the average consumer stock. When equal-weighted, the sector looks "abysmal," indicating a lack of confidence in retail shopping and leisure. AVOID (Structural distortion masks weakness). AMZN or TSLA rallying significantly, dragging the ETF higher despite broad sector weakness.
Up Next

This CNBC video, published February 24, 2026, features Jim Lebenthal, Joe Terranova, Josh Brown discussing DAL, WYNN, DASH, CVNA, LVS, EXPE, MELI, EBAY, TJX, YUMC, WSM, DRI, ULTA, KO, PEP, WMT, COST, XLY. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jim Lebenthal, Joe Terranova, Josh Brown  · Tickers: DAL, WYNN, DASH, CVNA, LVS, EXPE, MELI, EBAY, TJX, YUMC, WSM, DRI, ULTA, KO, PEP, WMT, COST, XLY