Ideas
Stocks face major 2026 downside.
Gareth sees the S&P 500 and QQQ/Nasdaq 100 set up for a major rejection in 2026: the weekly S&P tagged the upper parallel of a trendline connecting the COVID, 2022, and 2025 lows, and QQQ rejected broken trendline resistance. He also says Bitcoin's October 2025 top and historical lead point to more S&P downside. Retail dominance, leverage, AI-bubble excess, and a no-lose psychology increase crash risk, so he expects limited upside and substantially lower stocks in 2026.
AI bubble faces margin-driven downside.
Gareth thinks the AI bubble is deflating because hyperscalers depreciate chips over seven years even though rapid technology advances make them obsolete in two to three years, artificially boosting earnings. He also points to unfundable OpenAI-linked deals, Oracle's debt load, margin compression from Amazon, Google, and Rivos building custom AI chips, and data-center energy shortages. He expects AI stocks to fall much lower in 2026, with only a near-term bounce due.
Oracle set for near-term technical bounce.
Gareth is bullish on Oracle for a near-term technical bounce. The stock is down about 50% from its post-earnings high, discounting concerns about its debt and backlog, and has filled a major gap back to June 2025, which sets up a snapback rally even though he remains cautious on AI longer term.
Broadcom set for near-term bounce.
Gareth sees Broadcom as a near-term technical bounce candidate. It remains relatively weak but has fallen from about $424 after hours to roughly $320, bringing valuations down enough for at least a trading rebound, even though he expects AI-related stocks to go lower in 2026.
Nvidia margins face custom-chip pressure.
Gareth warns that Nvidia's chip monopoly is eroding as Amazon, Google, and Rivos develop in-house AI chips. That should push chip prices and margins lower; if gross margins fall from roughly 70% to 30%, the stock may need to drop about 50% to match the new economics.
Hyperscalers risk energy-driven idle chips.
Gareth warns that hyperscalers face a major energy bottleneck: data centers are being built rapidly, but there is not enough power, and nuclear plants are five to seven years away. Chips could sit idle and lose value while waiting for energy, creating huge risk for investors buying hyperscalers.
Bitcoin may flush to $69k-$74k.
Gareth expects Bitcoin to make another flush lower toward the prior cycle high at $69,000-$74,000, completing a 40-50% drawdown from its October 2025 high. He says a normal equity pullback would stabilize Bitcoin in that zone, while a major stock-market crash could push it even lower, so the near-term setup is for further downside before accumulation.
Debt makes MSTR risky near term.
Gareth says MicroStrategy/Strategy now trades at a discount to its Bitcoin holdings because of the debt it has taken on. If Bitcoin falls to $70,000, MSTR would be under water versus its roughly $75,000 average cost and its debt could face calls, so he is not ready to buy now despite the discount. He would revisit MSTR in the next bull run for roughly 2x Bitcoin upside.
Gold trend remains bullish toward $5,000.
Gareth remains bullish on gold near and long term. The chart shows a support trendline, breakout, and a new bull flag that looks ready to move higher; a break of all-time highs could bring $5,000/oz by Q1 2026. He cites central-bank buying, especially China, plus US debt and fiscal irresponsibility and distrust of government as supportive. Pullbacks are possible, but the trend is up.
Platinum and palladium lead metals.
For 2026, Gareth is focusing on metals, especially platinum and palladium, which have just started to run. He views them as key outperformers while the stock market is expected to come substantially lower.
Defensive dividends offer capital preservation.
Gareth plans to shift toward defensive, higher-dividend names such as Pfizer in 2026. These stocks are not exciting and will not triple overnight, but they trade at valuations with limited downside, may attract money during a stock-market selloff, and help preserve capital while still generating some return.
Silver faces imminent sharp pullback risk.
Gareth calls silver's recent move astronomical but warns it is getting close to a big pullback, noting silver's history of sharp drawdowns. He advises caution after the parabolic run.
This The David Lin Report video, published December 18, 2025,
features Gareth Soloway
discussing SPY, QQQ, AIQ, ORCL, AVGO, NVDA, SKYY, BTC, MSTR, GLD, PALL, PPLT, PFE, SPHD, SILVER.
12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Gareth Soloway
· Tickers:
SPY,
QQQ,
AIQ,
ORCL,
AVGO,
NVDA,
SKYY,
BTC,
MSTR,
GLD,
PALL,
PPLT,
PFE,
SPHD,
SILVER
