Amos Hochstein on Iran war: The tools that were there a few months ago are diminishing

Summary

Amos Hochstein discusses the ongoing US-Iran war, the lack of a quick end, and the president's difficult choices. He highlights severe energy supply pressures: oil infrastructure disruption, dwindling SPR and commercial stocks, and a Russian diesel export ban after refinery attacks, expecting energy prices to spike within weeks.

• The US-Iran war is unlikely to end soon; a decision on all-in escalation is looming.
• Iran is a much larger and tougher opponent than Iraq, making a swift air-only campaign unrealistic.
• Energy supply tools are diminishing: SPR releases are slowing, commercial crude stocks are lower than desired.
• Russia has halted diesel exports after Ukrainian attacks on refineries, exposing a global refined product shortage.
• US refineries are running near full capacity without maintenance, adding to supply fragility.
• The speaker advises focusing on the four-week outlook rather than current spot prices, expecting very challenging energy prices.
• Diplomatically, a coalition and a new deal with Iran on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz access are seen as necessary.