India Seeks Role in AI Future As Modi Hosts France's Macron | The Pulse 2/17
Speakers
Summary
- US Macro Goldilocks: Goldman Sachs argues the US is in a "sweet spot" of stronger-than-expected growth and benign inflation, driven by waning tariff impacts and AI/China deflationary pressures. This contradicts fears of sticky inflation.
- Forex Reversal: Despite recent moves, Goldman sees the US Dollar as overvalued and due for depreciation. Conversely, the Japanese Yen's recent rally is viewed as "too far, too fast," with a reversion to 155 USD/JPY expected.
- AI Data Moat: A key distinction is emerging in AI valuation: "Who owns the data?" Analysts favor companies that own their data stack (Alphabet) over those relying on partnerships (Microsoft/OpenAI).
- India Defense Pivot: India is finalizing a massive deal for ~100 French fighter jets, signaling a tangible shift away from Russian dependency and a major revenue event for French defense aerospace.
Trade Ideas
Oil prices are "holding up" going into weekends due to geopolitical risk premiums but "relaxing on Mondays" when no escalation occurs. The market is pricing in fear, not fundamentals. If there is *any* positive resolution (or simply a lack of escalation) in Ukraine or the Middle East, the risk premium evaporates. WATCH for a SHORT entry on geopolitical de-escalation news. Actual supply disruption from a wider Middle East conflict.
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
Trivedi states, "We do have a stronger growth outlook... despite that stronger growth outlook we expect inflation to remain benign." He cites waning tariff impacts and softer wage growth. This combination (Growth + Disinflation) is the definition of a "Goldilocks" scenario. Markets often fear strong growth leads to rate hikes, but GS argues inflation is structuraly contained (AI/China export deflation), allowing the Fed to cut rates twice in H2. LONG US Equities as the macro backdrop supports valuation expansion. Unexpected inflation spikes from supply chain shocks.
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
GS views the Dollar as "overvalued" based on their metrics, supported previously by "exceptional market performance" in the US which is now normalizing. As US exceptionalism fades relative to the rest of the world and the Fed cuts rates (2 cuts forecasted), the yield differential support for the USD erodes. SHORT USD (expecting moderate depreciation). US inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hold rates higher for longer.
Kamakshya Trivedi
Head of Global FX and Interest Rates, Goldman Sachs
Trivedi notes the recent Yen rally went "too far too fast" and expects the Bank of Japan to hike rates only moderately (next hike likely July, not March). The market over-extrapolated the BoJ's hawkishness. With a slow hiking cycle and a still-strong US economy, the yield gap remains wide enough to push USD/JPY back up toward 155. SHORT JPY (Targeting 155 USD/JPY). BoJ surprises with an aggressive hike in March.
Sudhi Ranjan Sen
Bloomberg India Government Reporter
Macron is in India to finalize a deal for "at least 100 fighter jets" (Rafale Marine, manufactured by Dassault). This is described as the "biggest defense deal ever for India in the last seven decades." It represents a massive, secured revenue pipeline for the manufacturer (Dassault Aviation). LONG DASTY (Dassault Aviation). Bureaucratic delays in finalizing the contract or technology transfer disputes.
Neil Campling
Tech/TMT Analyst
Campling argues the key differentiator in AI is data ownership. "Alphabet... owns the data. Microsoft doesn't own the data [mainly through OpenAI JV]." In the long-term AI race, margins and capability will accrue to those who control the feedstock (data). Google's ownership of DeepMind and Search data gives it a structural margin advantage over Microsoft, which relies on a partnership model. LONG GOOG/GOOGL (Data Owner) vs. WATCH MSFT (Data Renter). Regulatory breakup of Google; OpenAI achieves AGI faster than Google despite data disadvantage.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 17, 2026, features Marc Champion, Kamakshya Trivedi, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Neil Campling discussing WTI, SPY, QQQ, USD, JPY, DASTY, GOOGL. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Marc Champion, Kamakshya Trivedi, Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Neil Campling · Tickers: WTI, SPY, QQQ, USD, JPY, DASTY, GOOGL