Property Play: Scenes from a CRE finance conference
Speakers
Summary
- Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Liquidity is Returning: After a freeze in 2023-2024, banks (like JPM) are back to lending in 2026, joining private capital. Deal volume is rising.
- Multifamily Bifurcation: While long-term demand is supported by housing unaffordability, short-term fundamentals are weak due to massive oversupply (especially in the Southeast and Phoenix), leading to flat/negative rent growth for the next 6-12 months.
- The "Grocery-Anchored" Pivot: Smart money is aggressively pivoting toward convenience-based/grocery-anchored retail, citing zero new supply and high retention, a shift away from the crowded multifamily trade.
- Contrarian Office Call: A "significant bid" has returned for San Francisco office space, driven by AI companies, marking a potential bottom for the most distressed asset class.
Trade Ideas
"We were one of the largest buyers of retail last year... going to go heavy into that [convenience-based, grocery-anchored retail]. People haven't built in a long time, so there's very little supply." Unlike multifamily which is suffering from an oversupply glut, neighborhood retail has had zero new construction. High occupancy + no competition = pricing power to push rents. Long grocery-anchored retail REITs as a defensive, cash-flowing play in 2026. Consumer spending slowdown affecting tenant solvency.
"As we go through 2026 that normalizes. The banks are back... deal making and commercial real estate is on the rise." Banks have repaired balance sheets and are re-entering the lending market. Higher base rates (high 3s/low 4s) plus spreads (5-6% total) mean banks are lending at very attractive, profitable levels compared to the zero-rate era. Long large commercial lenders. Unexpected spike in delinquencies forcing higher capital reserves.
Justin Wheeler
CEO, Berkadia
"There seems to be just tons of demand for it... we think that the next five years there's not an over supply situation." Despite fears of AI efficiency reducing space needs, the physical infrastructure required for compute (Hyperscalers) continues to outpace supply. Long Data Center REITs and infrastructure providers. Exit risk/valuation concerns if liquidity dries up; long-term AI efficiency reducing physical footprint.
Willy Walker
CEO, Walker & Dunlop
"Industrial has been sort of the darling for the last 20 years. It's still doing very well because of the growth of Amazon and online distribution." E-commerce penetration continues to drive demand for logistics and warehousing space, keeping fundamentals strong despite broader CRE wobbles. Long Industrial REITs. Slowdown in consumer goods consumption.
Willy Walker
CEO, Walker & Dunlop
"Today, this place [large convention hotel] is operating, I'm assuming, extremely well." Post-pandemic recovery in group travel and conventions has fully materialized, restoring profitability to large-scale hospitality assets. Long major hospitality chains/REITs focused on business and convention travel. Corporate travel budget cuts in a recession.
Up Next
This CNBC video, published February 17, 2026, features Justin Wheeler, Willy Walker discussing XRT, JPM, KBE, EQIX, DLR, PLD, TRNO, MAR, HLT, H. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Justin Wheeler, Willy Walker · Tickers: XRT, JPM, KBE, EQIX, DLR, PLD, TRNO, MAR, HLT, H