Jeremy Siegel: If oil stays near $80 there's no way the Fed raises rates in September
Speakers
Jeremy Siegel
— Professor of Finance, Wharton School
Summary
Jeremy Siegel discusses continued earnings momentum, the S&P 500's record move, and why he does not think investors are too bullish. He also argues that if oil stays near $80, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in September. Siegel highlights a six-month rotation from growth to value and favors low-P/E stocks with AI adoption upside.
- S&P 500 tops 7,800 for the first time as earnings continue to impress.
- Siegel views the recent liquidity event as a clearing event, not a systemic meltdown.
- CPI and PPI data came in good, and Goldman Sachs lowered its PCE estimate.
- Siegel says if oil stays in the low $80s, the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in September.
- AI is supporting earnings through hyperscaler infrastructure spending and potential cost-cutting.
- Non-tech margins may improve dramatically if companies use AI to reduce costs.
- Siegel sees a six-month rotation from growth to value still in place.
- He favors roughly 15 P/E stocks with potential AI-related gains that are not yet priced in.
Ideas
Earnings momentum supports continued equity upside.
Siegel is blown away by ongoing earnings momentum and argues the recent liquidity event was a clearing event that gave confidence. With CPI and PPI coming in good and Goldman Sachs lowering its PCE estimate, plus AI driving earnings through hyperscaler spending and future cost cuts, he does not think investors are inappropriately bullish.
Oil near $80 keeps Fed on hold.
If oil stays in the low $80s, he sees no way the Fed raises rates in September, especially after good CPI/PPI and a lowered Goldman PCE estimate; this is a key macro setup to monitor for rate-sensitive positioning.
Favor value stocks with AI upside.
There has been a six-month rotation from growth to value, and after the liquidity-event shock the broader rotation trend remains intact. He likes roughly 15 P/E stocks that have potential gains from AI adoption across almost every industry but have not yet used it; this can continue the rotation even if mega-cap tech still rises.
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This CNBC video, published August 13, 2026, features Jeremy Siegel discussing SPY, WTI, Value stocks. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jeremy Siegel · Tickers: SPY, WTI, Value stocks