Altman Warns About Dictators Using AI, Oil Rises on Iran Concerns | The Opening Trade 2/19/2026
Speakers
Summary
- Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns: Oil prices (Brent) have climbed above $70/bbl amidst US military buildup near Iran and stalled peace talks. This is creating a divergence: Energy stocks are bid, while airlines (though some are hedged) face renewed cost pressure.
- The AI Hardware Supercycle: OpenAI is raising capital at an $850B+ valuation, signaling massive capex. Concurrently, Samsung is raising prices by 30%, confirming strong pricing power for memory and hardware providers.
- European Earnings Divergence: A sharp split in European corporate performance is evident. Nestle is surging on restructuring and asset sales (Ice Cream), while Airbus is faltering due to supply chain constraints (engine shortages) causing delivery misses.
- Deep Tech vs. SaaS: Venture capital is pivoting away from generic SaaS (viewed as defenseless against AI) toward "Deep Tech" (Space, Defense, Climate), citing higher moats and tangible asset value.
Trade Ideas
Brent crude is climbing above $70/bbl due to "risk of another Gulf War" and significant US military buildup near Iran. Talks between the US and Iran are stalling. Geopolitical tension involving major oil producers directly restricts supply or increases the risk premium on crude. Higher oil prices directly boost the free cash flow of upstream energy producers and integrated majors. LONG Energy and Oil Futures as a geopolitical hedge. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation in the Middle East.
Nestle's new CEO announced a reorganization into four segments and confirmed advanced talks to spin off/sell the Ice Cream business (Haagen-Dazs). They also predicted sales growth of 3-4%. The Ice Cream business is capital intensive and seasonal (volatile). Spinning it off streamlines the balance sheet and improves return on invested capital (ROIC), signaling management is serious about operational efficiency. LONG on the restructuring catalyst. Execution risk on the spinoff or continued headwinds from the infant formula recall issues.
Tom Mackenzie
Anchor, Bloomberg
OpenAI is raising money at an $850B valuation to fund trillions in capex. Simultaneously, Samsung is raising prices by 30% on its components. OpenAI's massive capital raise guarantees future spending on compute infrastructure. Samsung's price hike confirms that demand for memory/chips exceeds supply, giving hardware makers significant pricing power (inflationary for buyers, margin-accretive for sellers). LONG Memory and AI Hardware providers. Potential regulatory caps on AI development or a slowdown in hyperscaler capex.
Ben Smith
CEO of Air France-KLM
Air France reported strong operating income ($2B+) driven by premium demand across the Atlantic. Crucially, they are "significantly higher hedged" on fuel (50-60%) compared to US competitors. While rising oil prices hurt the airline industry generally, Air France's hedging book gives them a temporary competitive advantage over unhedged peers, protecting margins in the short term. WATCH/NEUTRAL (Positive earnings offset by macro oil headwinds). Sustained oil price spike beyond the hedging window or geopolitical airspace closures.
Kate Duffy
Bloomberg Aerospace Reporter
Airbus deliveries missed expectations (19 vs Boeing's 46 in Jan) due to ongoing engine shortages (Pratt & Whitney). Management indicated these issues could last until 2027. Aircraft manufacturers get paid upon delivery. If they cannot secure engines to finish the planes (leaving "gliders" in hangars), they cannot recognize revenue or collect cash, despite high demand. SHORT/AVOID until supply chain bottlenecks resolve. A faster-than-expected resolution to the engine supply chain issues.
Yann de Vries
Co-Founder, Cam Bara
"Common software SaaS companies are now under attack from the AI platforms... and hundreds of startups that came out overnight... at a fraction of the cost." AI lowers the barrier to entry for software creation, destroying the "moat" of legacy SaaS companies that rely on seat-based pricing for generic workflows. This leads to multiple compression for the sector. AVOID/SHORT Legacy SaaS; rotate into Deep Tech. Legacy SaaS companies successfully integrating AI agents to retain pricing power.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 19, 2026, features Guy Johnson, Jill Yanukovich, Tom Mackenzie, Ben Smith, Kate Duffy, Yann de Vries discussing SHELL, BP, XLE, BRENT, NESN, KS, AF, EADSY, CRM, WDAY. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Guy Johnson, Jill Yanukovich, Tom Mackenzie, Ben Smith, Kate Duffy, Yann de Vries · Tickers: SHELL, BP, XLE, BRENT, NESN, KS, AF, EADSY, CRM, WDAY