US, Iran To Halt Attacks; Korea Looks to Cement AI Lead | The Asia Trade 6/29/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 29, 2026 at 04:28  |  1:33:58  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Masahiro Wakasugi — Senior Industry Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
Shaun Cochran — Analyst, CITIC CLSA
Daniel Hynes — Head of Commodity Strategy, ANZ
Illiana Jain — International Economist, Westpac
Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer
Garfield Reynolds — Markets Reporter/Editor, Bloomberg
Marcus Wong — Rates and Emerging Markets Macro Strategist, Bloomberg
Stefan Angrick — Senior Economist, Moody's Analytics
Winnie Hsu — Bloomberg Reporter (Asia Markets)

Summary

The episode covers a fragile US-Iran ceasefire with talks shifting to the Strait of Hormuz, volatile oil prices, and South Korea's massive AI mega-projects with Samsung and SK Hynix. It also discusses the hawkish Fed pivot under Kevin Warsh pressuring EM debt, the yen near 40-year lows but potentially rallying, and a sharp rotation out of chipmakers into software. Hong Kong IPO activity is surging on AI-related names, and commodity analysts see medium-term support for gold and tight copper on AI demand.

  • US and Iran agree to halt attacks, but the 11-day ceasefire remains fragile; negotiations move to Doha focusing on Hormuz transit.
  • South Korea set to unveil 'mega projects' with Samsung and SK Hynix, part of a national strategy to cement AI leadership.
  • Fed's hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh pressures EM bonds, strengthens the dollar, and drives market jitters.
  • Japanese yen hovers near 1986 lows against the dollar, but some analysts see a floor and rally as credit tightens.
  • A massive rotation from US chipmakers to software triggers volatility in Korea and Taiwan, with the KOSPI seeing multiple circuit breakers.
  • Hong Kong IPO market surges, led by AI-related optical and biotech firms, despite a weak Hang Seng Index.
  • Gold prices briefly dipped below $4,000 on hawkish Fed fears, but medium-term support from macro risks is expected.
  • Copper market is described as tight, buoyed by AI infrastructure demand and concerns over potential US tariffs.
Ideas
Illiana Jain International Economist, Westpac 17:56
Tech buildout benefits North Asia, hurts India
North Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are deeply involved in the AI and tech buildout, experiencing strong employment and growth in the tech sector. In contrast, countries like India and the Philippines are not directly part of this buildout, lack big growth drivers, and face greater stagflation risks.
EPHE INDA MED
Illiana Jain International Economist, Westpac 17:56
Tech buildout benefits North Asia, hurts India
North Asian economies like South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan are deeply involved in the AI and tech buildout, experiencing strong employment and growth in the tech sector. In contrast, countries like India and the Philippines are not directly part of this buildout, lack big growth drivers, and face greater stagflation risks.
EWT EWJ EWY MED
Masahiro Wakasugi Senior Industry Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence 20:12
AI memory shortage supports SK Hynix, Samsung
AI-driven memory demand is so strong that the industry consensus points to a shortage in 2027 and potentially 2028 unless capex is accelerated now. Micron's strong earnings and 85% gross margin signal high profitability, and SK Hynix is expected to post similar strong results. Samsung and SK Hynix must expand capacity to capture demand, making the memory segment very attractive.
005930.KS 000660.KS HIGH
Shaun Cochran Analyst, CITIC CLSA 53:46
Bullish dollar on tightening credit conditions
Global credit conditions are deteriorating, which increases demand for high-quality collateral and over time creates demand for the U.S. dollar. Tactically, the dollar is bullish despite it not being cheap relative to global currencies.
UUP MED
Shaun Cochran Analyst, CITIC CLSA 54:29
Yen to floor and rally on repatriation
Japan has a very strong economy with a large amount of capital deployed offshore; tightening global credit conditions would prompt repatriation, putting upward pressure on the yen. Unusual inflationary pressures in Japan and the market's failure to respond yet create a base case where the yen finds a floor and rallies.
FXY MED
Daniel Hynes Head of Commodity Strategy, ANZ 76:54
Gold supported medium-term despite hawkish Fed
Near-term hawkish Fed expectations are weighing on gold, but if those expectations stabilize, broader global macro issues such as geopolitical risks and inflation will come forward and provide ongoing support for gold over the medium to longer term.
GLD MED
Daniel Hynes Head of Commodity Strategy, ANZ 78:10
Copper tight on AI demand, tariff fears
Copper demand is strong, driven by the AI infrastructure boom, making the market tighter than it probably looks. Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs on copper are driving strong import demand from the U.S., and traders are clearly worried about supply constraints.
COPPER MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 29, 2026, features Illiana Jain, Masahiro Wakasugi, Shaun Cochran, Daniel Hynes discussing EPHE, INDA, EWT, EWJ, EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, UUP, FXY, GLD, COPPER. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Illiana Jain, Masahiro Wakasugi, Shaun Cochran, Daniel Hynes  · Tickers: EPHE, INDA, EWT, EWJ, EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, UUP, FXY, GLD, COPPER