Daniel Hynes

Copper and aluminum are entering a structural uptrend driven by AI infrastructure demand, supply constraints, and the energy transition, outweighing macroeconomic headwinds.

Near-term hawkish Fed expectations are weighing on gold, but if those expectations stabilize, broader global macro issues such as geopolitical risks and inflation will come forward and provide ongoing support for gold over the medium to longer term.

Oil markets have shown a "muted" reaction to the conflict, assuming a quick resolution. Hynes states the market is "under-evaluating the risks" and is more fragile than in the past. The assumption that US shale can instantly "fill the breach" is flawed; producers need months of elevated prices to ramp up. If the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global supply) faces actual disruption rather than just threats, the current risk premium is insufficient. LONG. Betting against market complacency regarding a major supply choke point. Trump's promised naval escorts successfully maintain flow; demand destruction from a global recession.