Daniel Hynes

Head of Commodity Strategy, ANZ
@danielhynes · tracked since Mar 2026
Calls 1 2 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Best Calls
USO long +54.1%
Worst Calls
No live losers yet
Most Mentioned
BNO ×1
Recent Calls
USO long 3 months ago
Win Rate 100% Long 1 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 100%
30d 100%
90d 100%
Average Return +54.1% Long Return +54.1% Short Return -
Average Return
7d +18.0%
30d +51.7%
90d +49.9%
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Thesis
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Source
USO United S... United States Oil Fund
Long
Mar 04
$91.56
+54.1%
Oil markets have shown a "muted" reaction to the conflict, assuming a quick resolution. Hynes states the market is "under-evaluating the risks" and is more fragile than in the past. The assumption that US shale can instantly "fill the breach" is flawed; producers need months of elevated prices to ramp up. If the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global supply) faces actual disruption rather than just threats, the current risk premium is insufficient. LONG. Betting against market complacency regarding a major supply choke point. Trump's promised naval escorts successfully maintain flow; demand destruction from a global recession.
Oil markets have shown a "muted" reaction to the conflict, assuming a quick resolution. Hynes states the market is "under-evaluating the risks" and is more fragile than in the past. The assumption that US shale can instantly "fill the breach" is flawed; producers need months of elevated prices to ramp up. If the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global supply) faces actual disruption rather than just threats, the current risk premium is insufficient. LONG. Betting against market complacency regarding a major supply choke point. Trump's promised naval escorts successfully maintain flow; demand destruction from a global recession.
Energy
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