Hormuz Transit, Trump vs. GOP, Market Volatility & Ukraine Strikes | Bloomberg This Weekend: June 28
Speakers
Mike McGlone
— Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
Carlos Ree Hernandez
— Former Vice Foreign Minister of Panama, Senior Adviser at Center for Strategic Studies
Lisa Mateo
— Reporter, Bloomberg
Greg Stohr
— Supreme Court Reporter, Bloomberg
Summary
Bloomberg Weekend covers renewed US-Iran military strikes and a fragile Hormuz ceasefire, with senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone laying out a bearish commodity thesis: WTI crude to $40, gold range-bound for years, and broad commodity declines. The show also touches on Panama Canal benefits from diverted traffic, US midterm primaries, Supreme Court cases, and World Cup cultural moments.
- US and Iran exchange fresh strikes despite a ceasefire, keeping Strait of Hormuz tensions high.
- Mike McGlone predicts WTI crude to hit $40, gold to stay range-bound, and broad commodity weakness in H2 due to super-abundance.
- Panama Canal experiences traffic surge and higher revenue as ships reroute from the Hormuz conflict zone.
- Trump-backed candidates win Republican primaries, bolstering his influence ahead of November midterms.
- Supreme Court prepares to rule on birthright citizenship and presidential power to fire a Fed governor.
- Google limits Meta's access to its Gemini AI, highlighting infrastructure constraints in AI.
- World Cup knockout stage begins, with Boston celebrated for its embrace of Scottish fans.
- President Trump inspects DC fountain restorations and pushes for a $22 billion Dulles airport renovation.
Ideas
WTI crude oil heading to $40
WTI crude oil is heading to $40 a barrel due to accelerating supply surplus in the US and Canada, OPEC becoming redundant with UAE and Iraq threatening to leave, and the 'drill at will' global mantra. The 2008 pattern of a peak then crash is repeating.
Treasury yields to drop, bonds rally
US Treasury bond yields are likely to decline as part of the broad risk-off, pump-then-dump pattern in financial assets in the second half of the year, making long-duration US government bonds attractive.
Commodity prices to fall in H2
Super-abundance in the Western Hemisphere, technology increasing supply and reducing demand, and pump-and-dump patterns across assets signal that commodity prices broadly will continue to decline in the second half of the year.
Gasoline prices to drop to $2.90
US retail gasoline prices will fall from around $3.90 to $2.90 per gallon as the lagged pass-through from lower crude oil and wholesale gasoline prices materializes, despite summer driving season.
Gold stuck in range for years
Gold has put in a significant high in Q1 and will be stuck in a range for years. It hit a 40-year high versus the Bloomberg Commodity Index and is extremely overvalued relative to US Treasuries, similar to early 1980s levels. Investors should sell when everyone is yelling.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 29, 2026, features Mike McGlone discussing WTI, TLT, DBC, UGA, GLD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.